Acme Packing Company
It’s a tie. A bloody tie. But how do we actually deal with a tie when it comes to power rankings? Well…
For your old-timey power rankings, there are plenty of options to choose from around the old internet, or you can just ask ChatGPT, which will tell you that the Eagles are undefeated because of Johnny Cash’s excellent coverage, probably. Everyone has a Power Ranking. People LOVE Power Rankings! But over here in analytical nerd land we’re trying something a little different. This is the futuristic neural net version of power rankings, and we’re using our best cyber-neurons to generate neurotically objective power rankings. Since power rankings are all about arguing about why the rankings are wrong, I’ve decided it’s disappointing to be subjectively wrong like everyone else. If we’re going to be wrong, we’re going to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong, we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.
What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! We had quite a bit of movement this week because of some big moves in the betting market, AND because this is the first week where FTN starts using opponent adjustments in DVOA, but we’re starting to get a clear view of the haves (Buffalo) and the have-nots (the Titans are “Titaning” their grip on last place).
1. Buffalo Bills: CALCULATOR Score: 130.46, Change from last week: 6.23 – The Bills are SUPER interesting. Usually, the number one team here is pretty strong across the board, especially when they have such a significant lead over the second-best team, but that is NOT the case with Buffalo. While they are a good team to be sure and have the best offense by DVOA and most other metrics, they’re a poor defensive team AND poor special teams team so far, and that is unlikely to change. They’ve scored over 30 in every game, but they allowed 21 to a pretty bad Dolphins team and 19 to the Saints. 19 might not sound that bad, but the Saints are a special case. Anyway, the reason that Buffalo is so high is that they play a comically easy schedule. It’s been easy (NYJ, Miami, NO), and it doesn’t really get harder (NE twice, Miami again, NYJ again, ATL, CAR, HOU, PIT, CIN, CLE). Even if they are flawed, they are extremely likely to have the AFC’s number one seed, and that will get you a good chunk of the way to the Super Bowl. They have great Super Bowl odds as a result, which pushes them way up the charts, but we shouldn’t ignore the flaws. They remind me a bit of the 2011 Packers and keep a close eye on...
