Acme Packing Company
Wow, that was fun, right? Football is back, and the Packers look great, but are they really great, or did they just look great? I have no idea because Week 1 is a throne of lies, as the saying goes, but hey, let’s try to put some rigor to this anyway.
For your old-timey power rankings, there are plenty of options to choose from around the old internet, or you can just ask ChatGPT, which will tell you that Denver’s passing game was bad because of ebonix, probably. Everyone has a Power Ranking. People LOVE Power Rankings! But over here in analytical nerd land, we’re trying something a little different. This is the futuristic cyber version of power rankings, and we’re using our best cyber technology to generate cyberly objective power rankings. Since power rankings are all about arguing about why the rankings are wrong, I’ve decided it’s disappointing to be subjectively wrong like everyone else. If we’re going to be wrong, we’re going to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.
What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see the preseason rankings (and last year’s rankings) here, and current rankings here. As a reminder, it’s only week one and our information is pretty limited. Even if you aggregate a bunch of small sample size data, it’s still small sample size data! However, the benefit of Calculator is that it knows enough to not declare the Colts the best team in football.
The Colts are just the fifth best team in football, while the Giants are bringing up the rear thanks to Russell Wilson, who is turbo-cooked. But who’s in first? Who could it be? Well let’s jump in.
(Please note, calculations were complete prior to Thursday’s games. Adjust Washington down or Green Bay up as much as you feel is warranted.)
1. Green Bay Packers: CALCULATOR Score: 114.61, Change from preseason ranking: 28.78 – The Packers destroyed the NFC’s best team from a year ago (and then the NFC’s third-ish best team!), and while some of the other top teams had some warts, the Packers were strong in all phases, by all metrics. They finished third in DVOA, fourth in EPA per Play, third in PFF grade, and shot up to +850 to win it all. Strictly speaking, Indy may have had the best performance this week, but Vegas trusts the Packers to actually be good. This also set up a fascinating Thursday night matchup against a team we’ll be discussing momentarily, but for now, let’s just bask in the glow of our outstanding C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R ranking.
Baltimore Ravens: 106.69, -4.15 – Why are the Ravens here...
