NFL Trade Rumors
We’re through Week 11 of the NFL season and the playoff race is just heating up. As many as 21 teams can claim to be “in the hunt,” and no teams have been officially eliminated yet. Things are bound to get much crazier in the coming weeks.
As we approach clinching season, now is a good time to examine the field and make some projections. Today, I’m buying and selling playoff contenders based on my confidence in them. This is based on a combination of their ability to not only make the playoffs, but also to do some damage once they get there.
I didn’t base this just on vibes, either. I took a deep dive into some advanced metrics to see if they backed up my thoughts on each team — and I’ve outlined the analytical outlook for these teams as I break down why I’m in or out on them as playoff teams.
Without further ado, let’s jump right in:
Yeah, the Chiefs are 5-5, coming off back-to-back losses and don’t look very inspiring right now. Rival fans are hoping their reign of league dominance is over, and with Kansas City currently sitting outside the playoff bracket after 11 weeks, there’s reason to believe the cracks might be showing for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Except the Chiefs are still one of the best teams in the league by basically every metric. They have a +73 point differential, ranking sixth in the NFL and ahead of some notable teams such as the Broncos, Bills and Eagles. They rank second in EPA per play on offense, ninth in EPA per play allowed on defense, fourth in PFF pass blocking grade, eighth in PFF rushing grade, eighth in PFF defensive grade and third in PFF coverage grade. Their lowest rank in PFF’s system is actually passing grade, where the Chiefs rank just 20th.
That is the profile of a team much better than their 5-5 record would indicate. After going 11-0 in one-score games in 2024, Kansas City is 0-5 in such games this season. All their losses have been by seven points or fewer, and three of them have been by just three points. Those losses came against the Chargers, Eagles, Jaguars, Bills and Broncos — all teams currently sitting in playoff spots.
While they do need to start stacking wins to make good on those favorable metrics, the Chiefs have a forgiving upcoming schedule. After facing a high-flying Colts team in Week 12, the Chiefs close the season against the Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, Titans, Broncos, and Raiders. Kansas City has to feel optimistic about its chances to finish 10-7 or better, which likely nets them a wildcard berth. Theoretically, the division is still in play, but catching up to the Broncos (more on them later) will be a tall task.
The Chiefs do have real issues that are leading to these losses. They can’t run the ball situationally at all...
