Buffalo Rumblings
In March of 2021, the Buffalo Bills signed wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to one-year, $6 million contract. They had just come off the best season of quarterback Josh Allen’s career, with him ascending to new heights, establishing himself as an MVP candidate, and leading the team into an entirely new era of optimism. The Bills were a juggernaut on offense for the first time since the 1990s.
When asked about the signing, general manager Brandon Beane said something that resonates in my mind now: “You never want to lose your fastball.”
The “fastball” in this case, was Josh Allen throwing the ball down the field to wide receivers. The Bills had two 100-target wide receivers, both of whom were voted All-Pro that season (Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley). Those two players both averaged at least nine yards per target. The plurality of the passing game ran through newly acquired Stefon Diggs who had his career-best season with 127 catches and 1,535 receiving yards. Furthermore, 63.8% of the passing targets went to wide receivers.
It feels like a lifetime ago.
The Bills’ ability throw the ball down the field to wide receivers has been largely non-existent recently. In Sunday’s 30-13 embarrassment against the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo’s top two targeted receivers (Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman) accumulated a dismal 6.1 yards per target (6.4 for Shakir and 5.75 for Coleman). Allen’s time to throw was 3.53 seconds — his longest since 2018 (that year is relevant).
Numerous commenters noted the lack of open receivers downfield. Even when the passing game performs well, it’s not typically due to meaningful contributions by the wide receivers. In the performance against the Kansas City Chiefs for Week 9, it was the tight ends who contributed heavily to the victory, pulling in 59.3% of Allen’s overall passing yardage in the victory.
Coleman, in particular, has been the subject of much discussion this year. After his big fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens in a Week 1 comeback victory where he finished the game with eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown, Coleman has been largely unproductive even in games where he’s getting targets. His passer rating when targeted this season is 86.3, ranking 56th in the NFL out of 68 players with 25 targets or more. Not enough good things happen when Allen throws the ball to the former second-round pick.
But the Bills didn’t lose their fastball by accident. They elected to cut Cole Beasley. They elected to trade away Stefon Diggs. They elected to draft Keon Coleman, who didn’t fit the archetype of receivers who had success with Josh Allen and did fit the archetype of players they rostered in 2018 (Andre Holmes, Kelvin Benjamin) when you had the least decisive version of Josh Allen.
They passed on Ladd McConkey. Per recent reports, they made a run at Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle at the trade deadline, but offered a 2027 first-round pick and more when Miami wanted a 2026 first to be...
