Buffalo Rumblings
The pervading narrative about the Buffalo Bills is that recent stumbles have thrown up some red flags about this year’s team. The 4-0 start against losing teams wasn’t very impressive, and the back-to-back losses against the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons exposed vulnerabilities in a defense that’s regressed and an offense that’s lost its rhythm. Worse yet, injuries have ravaged the depth chart.
With the one seed in the AFC still within reach and an 8-0 post-bye record under head coach Sean McDermott as a historical crutch, this break is a chance for re-calibration. But who’s carrying the Bills toward contention, and who’s dragging them back?
Here’s my deep dive into the top three trending up, and the top three trending down. It’s all backed by stats and advanced metrics through six weeks. I’ve also added honorable mentions for those on the cusp.
James Cook has been the Bills’ most consistent performer, evolving from a complementary back into a bona fide featured running back. Entering Week 7, he’s been a top-five back league-wide, averaging 5.0 yards per carry (YPC) and posting 626 total scrimmage yards with five touchdowns.
Even as the offense sputtered in Weeks 5 and 6, Cook maintained efficiency, finishing with 537 rushing yards (third in the NFL) and a league-leading 6.1 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/att) among backs with 100-plus carries. Cook’s broken tackle rate sits at 28.3% (top 10), per Pro Football Focus (PFF), turning short-yardage dump-offs into chunk plays.
Advanced metrics highlight his elusiveness: Cook’s expected points added (EPA) per rush is plus-0.18 (fifth among RBs), a stark contrast to the Bills’ overall rushing EPA of plus-0.12. When Cook touches the ball 18-plus times, Buffalo is 3-0. Dialing him back in recent losses correlated with a 42% drop in offensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).
Cook’s the stabilizer Joe Brady needs to lean on post-bye. Finding ways to give him more touches, especially on passing downs, and using him in the biggest moments of the games is a nice start to get the offense going again.
Amid a defensive line that’s been gashed for 148 rushing yards per game (28th in the NFL), fourth-round rookie Deone Walker has emerged as a revelation. The Kentucky product has helped Buffalo’s interior with 0.5 sacks and 12 quarterback pressures in just 45% snap share, boasting a 92.4 PFF pass-rush grade (elite among rookies).
His run-defense metrics are equally impressive: Walker ranks top-15 among interior defenders with a 14.2% run-stop percentage and plus-2.3 tackles over expected. In Weeks 4-6, opponents’ rushing success rate dipped to 38% on plays where Walker was aligned against the run, per Next Gen Stats. His EPA per pass-rush dropback is plus-0.42 (top-five league-wide), bolstering Buffalo’s 34.8% pressure rate (12th in the NFL), per PFF, despite...
