Buffalo Rumblings
The Buffalo Bills are putting finishing touches in their game plan ahead of Sunday’s playoff matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Buffalo enters the postseason with a 12-5, having secured the six seed in the AFC. The offense averaged 28.3 points per game (fourth in the NFL), with the defense allowing 21.5. The Bills’ league-leading 2,714 rushing yards drove the success, despite passing inconsistencies and run defense issues.
Finishing 4-1 in the last five games may give Buffalo some momentum, but there are key players who appeared on the decline in that stretch, and could make things bleak in certain aspects. My selections for this week are based on season performances with recency weight, supported by metrics like Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades, DVOA, and CPOE.
Cook dominated as the NFL’s rushing champion, fueling the league’s top ground attack. He totaled 1,621 yards on 309 carries (5.2 YPC) and 12 touchdowns, exceeding previous highs. Over Weeks 14-18, Cook averaged 112 yards per game at 6.1 YPC, with a 78.4 PFF run grade and 4.2 yards after contact per attempt, forcing 42 missed tackles (top-10).
His burst supports a 28% play-action rate (eighth-highest), ideal against Jacksonville’s NFL-best run defense. Getting Jimbo and the running game going could make a huge difference in Sunday’s matchup.
Brandin Cooks has injected speed into the offense, struggling early with some drops but now surging at a crucial time. With five receptions on 11 targets for 114 yards (22.8 yards per catch) as a Bill this season, his Week 17 outing versus the Eagles — four receptions for 101 yards (25.3 average, including a 50-yarder) — demonstrated big-play potential in a tight 13-12 defeat.
Boasting a 75.0 PFF receiving grade, 3.0 average separation (Next Gen Stats), and 2.1 yards per route run, Cooks’ velocity challenges defenses, vital for stretching Jacksonville’s 24th-ranked pass DVOA and helping Allen.
The third-year pro has become a go-to option, thriving when healthy and compensating for wide receiver shortcomings. Kincaid accumulated 571 yards on 39 receptions (14.6 average) and five touchdowns in 12 games, earning an 82 PFF grade with only two drops and 4.8 YAC per reception. In the final stretch, he averaged 72 yards per game with four scores, posting +0.8 CPOE on targets and 2.4 yards per route run.
Looking healthy in his 10 snaps against the New York Jets in the Week 18 35-8 win, Kincaid moved sharply and appears healthy and set to impact the passing attack. His red-zone effectiveness (three TDs inside the 20) could help exploit Jacksonville’s 24th TE DVOA in coverage.
The star quarterback heads into the playoffs with some question marks, though capable of rebounds. Allen passed for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, adding 579 rushing yards and 14 scores for 39 total TDs — one short of 40 for the...
