Buffalo Rumblings
I’ve been doing various iterations of opponent previews for years now, with 2025’s focus being on myriad statistical trends. With this being the second time the Buffalo Bills have faced off against the Miami Dolphins in 2025, I thought it would be interesting to mirror my analysis from seven weeks ago. At the time I asked the question “Are the Dolphins good at anything?” and concluded that the answer was “no.”
You’ve likely taken the hint from the headline that I think they’re an improving team compared to last time. Does that mean I’ve changed my answer though? Here’s the piece from earlier in the season in case you want to cross-reference and give me more clicks.
Let’s take a look at the current state of things. We’ll use the same lens of “are the Dolphins good at anything.” When it comes to rushing offense the answer is “no, not really.” Worse, contrary to my assertion in the headline they’ve gotten worse not better. In Week 3 Miami had three play directions in which they were top third of the league in average gain. That included a third-best ranking running behind the left guard. Now only runs off the right tackle are top third of the league.
The run defense seems to have gotten worse too. Back in Week 3 they had three zones in the top third of the league just like their offensive side of the ball. That’s fallen to zero. Worse, I noted I couldn’t conclude they had a “good” run defense thanks to an atrocious 31st rank in defensing runs off the left guard. That’s technically improved to 30th place, but we both know that’s only a technical shift, not a real one.
The passing game has a little more hope for Dolphins fans. Miami is pretty good completing passes to the short right, with a 75% completion rate. They’re borderline elite in passes to the deep middle part of the field when it comes to not only completion rate (67%) but also average gain. The disclaimer in that zone is that they’ve had fewer passes there than just about anyone else and, as a result of there being only three passes there, it’s hard to see any of that data as meaningful. On the other hand, the average gain for those short middle passes is a legitimate positive.
In the review leading up to Week 3, there were a fair few more bright spots, so in this area too they’re doing worse than before. Let’s check in on the defense.
The defense only has one real bright spot from the chart. For deep left passes they allow an average completion rate, but a lower-than-average yards per pass. The deep middle information is a fraud thanks to only two passes being attempted in that direction.
The pass defense has shifted from Week 3 to now, but I wouldn’t call it better or worse necessarily...
