Buffalo Rumblings
The Buffalo Bills reclaimed their footing in the AFC East with an exciting 44-32 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium, improving to 7-3 on the season. In a game that featured nine lead changes, quarterback Josh Allen continued to write his name deeper into the NFL record books, accounting for six total touchdowns. Yet, for all the offensive success — Buffalo racked up 451 total yards — the defense showed cracks, surrendering 202 rushing yards and allowing Baker Mayfield to carve them up for 212 total yards and two scores.
As the Bills gear up for a short-week showdown with the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football, it’s time to assess the stock market of player performances. Who’s surging toward MVP conversations, and who’s in need of a reality check? Let’s dive into the top three trending up, the top three trending down, and some honorable mentions while using NFL advanced metrics to frame the discussion.
Unleash the Beast. Week 11 might be remembered as the day offensive coordinator Joe Brady learned to live with the chaos and trust the force behind it. Despite a rocky start with an awful interception on Buffalo’s first offensive possession, Allen flipped the script, finishing with 317 passing yards, three touchdowns through the air, 40 rushing yards, and three scores on the ground. This marked the third time in NFL history a player has achieved three passing and three rushing touchdowns in a single game, and the second such feat for number 17 in his career.
The reigning NFL MVP’s advanced metrics highlight his dominance: since the Week 8 bye, Allen boasts a +0.67 EPA per dropback on downfield throws (10+ air yards), ranking second in the league, with five such touchdowns (most in the NFL). Against man coverage, Allen went 11-of-17 for 166 yards and two touchdowns, while his 7-of-13 completion rate on deep balls yielded 168 yards and two scores. Allen’s ability to rebound from turnovers (Buffalo overcame three total) sends his trajectory upward; he’s leading the NFL with 25 total TDs, and his 68.2% adjusted completion percentage over expected (CPOE) this season suggests his accuracy is up there with the best numbers of his career.
It was a performance where we could see the return of the Josh Allen everybody loves — the unstoppable force of nature leading the offense as the centerpiece of it, not something to save them when the run game doesn’t work. If this Bills’ team is going somewhere, it’ll be led by this Josh Allen, and playing complementary football to help him.
In a receiving corps plagued by inconsistencies, former undrafted player Tyrell Shavers emerged as the feel-good story of Week 11. Thrust into a larger role with Keon Coleman sidelined, Shavers hauled in four catches on five targets, for 90 yards and a touchdown —...
