Buffalo Rumblings
I’m a bit late on the analysis bandwagon for this game and that’s a bit intentional on my part. I wanted to be a bit more deliberate in my stance on this and that of course took some time. In doing so, I believe I found the perfect framing for how I felt about the game and the data backs it up.
Since I’ve already got your click on the article, I guess I should warn you this will lean into stats and opinions as the video analysis market has already been saturated. So what can I offer you that’s different? My background with behavioral sciences.
For those of you unfamiliar with the story, “The Tortoise and the Hare” is one of Aesop’s collected fables and tells the tale of a footrace between foes lopsided on paper. The swift hare and less-swift tortoise agree to a race in what should have been a comically lopsided contest.
Against the odds, the tortoise is the victor. How did the slow-moving reptile pull this off? Rocket skates? Teleportation? PEDs? Nope. The hare’s complacency. Assured of its own victory, the mammal took a literal nap during the race, allowing the tortoise to pull ahead. Obviously I think this relates to the Bills “somehow.”
Both teams entered Week 12 with some volatility on offense, but on paper this was a race between offenses that should have been incredibly lopsided. Even with the results of this game factored in, the Bills are third in points per drive, compared to the Texans in 24th position. In yards per play Buffalo is still in fourth place, while Houston is 24th in this measure as well. I could go on, but in most major measures there’s a wide gap between the two offenses.
So what the heck happened? Now of course it has to be factored in that the Texans’ defense is legitimately really good, but Houston won the game scoring literally league average points — which was four more than Buffalo. It only gets worse if you dive into things too. Buffalo’s offense only put up 12 of their 19 points. I can make it even worse than that if you want.
The sole touchdown from the Bills came on a play we’d yell at Bobby Babich for if it happened against Buffalo. The Texans crowded the line of scrimmage to stop a 3rd & 1 conversion and nobody was in the gap that running back James Cook III went through. Yes Cook made some moves in a telephone booth, but you can’t call what Houston did a “success” by any stretch of the imagination.
Want me to keep piling on? You don’t? Well too bad. Buffalo had 11 drives where there was a reasonable opportunity to do something (12 drives counting a five-second one to close the first half). Three of those ended with a turnover, and four of them were for less than...
