Buffalo Bills can still win the AFC East in 2025

At the onset of the 2025 NFL season it seemed like a safe bet that the Buffalo Bills would once again be crowned the AFC East Champions. Whether it’s the ascendancy of a new elite talent or lightning in a bottle remains to be seen, but the New England Patriots and quarterback Drake Maye have won 10 straight in a run that for some time looked like it would leave the Bills in the dust. Now with four games remaining in the season, there’s a very simple (and not too impossible) path for Buffalo to make their return as the six-time division winner.

I want to be clear that I’m not insinuating this will be easy or remotely guaranteed, but the scenario below is also not insane to dream about either.

Well? Let’s get on with it

Before we get rolling with my scenario, here’s a list of tiebreakers listed in order of priority when two teams in a division have a tied record. I’m going with this scenario for purposes of this article as Buffalo must have at least a tied record (duh) and we don’t need an article to tell you that if the Bills ended up with a better record they’d get the division (also, duh).

Here are your tiebreaker scenarios:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

Alright, now for the simplest and most likely scenario to occur. This isn’t the only option out there of course, but if the Bills win out that would give them victories over the Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Jets to finish with a 13-4 record.

To get the division, the easiest New England scenario is a loss to Buffalo AND a loss to the Miami Dolphins in their remaining games against Miami, Baltimore Ravens, and New York Jets. For some quick answers to some “what if” questions:

• Buffalo cannot lose to New England. The Patriots clinch the division with a win.
• Technically a loss to the Jets would work just as well as one to the Dolphins but we’re using Miami as our example because I think that’s more likely.
• If the Bills win out, the outcome of the Ravens game is irrelevant, though of course if the Patriots drop that one it can give the Bills a one-game buffer if needed.

Here’s a chart.

These can be tough to organize...