Buffalo Rumblings
It’s been a whiplash two weeks for the Buffalo Bills, from the disheartening loss to the Miami Dolphins, then followed by wide receiver Keon Coleman’s benching and an electric 44-32 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bills are now 7-3 heading into tonight’s primetime matchup with the 5-5 Houston Texans, yet many fans and professional sports pundits remain unsure about where this team truly belongs in the NFL’s Super Bowl picture.
Buffalo faces a Houston team with Backup quarterback Davis Mills getting his third straight start. With a win, the Bills would hold tiebreakers on the three teams directly outside of the playoff picture (along with the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens) and keep themselves in AFC East title contention.
Buffalo seemingly found their downfield passing game on Sunday, but would be wise to not test the Texans’ NFL-best pass defense on a short week. Running back James Cook III struggled to get going on the ground against the Buccaneers, but still tallied 19 touches for 114 total yards.
Cook should be in line for an increased workload. Here’s why…
Last season’s matchup in Houston produced arguably Josh Allen’s worst career outing (9-of-30 passing), and was an overall difficult offensive watch that ended on a crushing 59-yard walk-off field goal from kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn. Now, coming off a historic performance by Allen in Week 11, it’s on offensive coordinator Joe Brady to play the numbers and avoid trying to replicate Sunday’s efficiency against the NFL’s best defense.
Houston’s passing defense is first in EPA/play against the pass and allows the third-fewest passing yards per game (171). This, despite the fact that opponents throw the ball on them 60% of the time, which is good for the ninth highest rate.
In Week 1, the Rams and potential MVP Matthew Stafford have been the only team to generate positive EPA against this secondary and they still managed just 224 passing yards and 14 points on the Texans. Los Angeles also gets the ball out quick and has two elite outside wide receivers to lean on in any given game.
Buffalo doesn’t have that same capability and Allen is the king of extending a play. So, my plea to Joe Brady is not to not overthink it regardless of what fans clamor for — this game calls for a matchup-induced run-heavy game script featuring Cook.
Houston is best in the league regardless of what kind of scenario is drawn up, so hopefully Brady realizes he cannot out-scheme the talent deficiency between these two units. Maybe play-action will throw them off? Nope. The Texans are by far the best pass defense unit against the play-action fake, even better than straight dropbacks (-.49 EPA vs -.19 on regular dropbacks).
The Texans rank among the top three defending pass plays that include motion, plays where they generate no quarterback pressure, and both short and deep passes. This is a no-fly zone and the only thing that takes...
