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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins meet in a critical Week 17 matchup on Sunday, December 28, 2025, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami with the Buccaneers desperately seeking momentum heading into the final stretch, while the Dolphins have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Buccaneers, despite their recent struggles, enter as 5.5-point favorites with a 7-8 record, while the Dolphins sit at 6-9 and are in transition at the quarterback position following the shocking benching of Tua Tagovailoa. This game represents far more than a late-season divisional clash—it’s a defining moment for two franchises headed in opposite directions.
The backdrop of this matchup reveals two teams in vastly different positions. Tampa Bay once looked poised for a playoff push after starting 6-2, but has since spiraled into a 1-6 run that has left fans questioning everything about this roster. Miami, meanwhile, has undergone a quarterback revolution, turning to seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers to inject fresh life into an offense that has sputtered all season. The stage is set for an intriguing divisional showdown that could reshape the playoff picture.
Baker Mayfield enters Week 17 on a mission to prove the Buccaneers’ quarterback situation remains viable despite their recent offensive struggles. Throughout the 2025 season, Mayfield has compiled 23 touchdown passes against just 8 interceptions, posting a 90.0 passer rating across 15 games while completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 3,144 yards. His most efficient performances have come in home starts, particularly in Week 5 against Seattle when he torched the Seahawks for 379 passing yards and two touchdowns on a pristine 87.9% completion rate.
The Dolphins’ secondary, hampered by defensive inconsistencies all season, presents an ideal target for Mayfield’s rhythm-based passing attack. Miami has allowed 71.49% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks — the worst mark in the NFL — and struggles significantly against vertical spacing and timing-based route concepts. With Mike Evans back and hungry to make an impact, and with Chris Godwin back to full strength and emerging rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka providing multiple receiving options Mayfield will find ample opportunity to dissect the Dolphins’ defensive coverage weaknesses.
Look for Mayfield to convert early critical drives into touchdown passes rather than settling for field goals. The Buccaneers’ redzone scoring percentage sits at 54.55%, suggesting they’re leaving points on the field in short-yardage situations. Against a Dolphins defense that has surrendered multiple explosive plays throughout the season, expect Mayfield to be decisive early and hit Evans multiple times in stride downfield. Mayfield should exceed his season average with three-plus touchdown passes as Tampa Bay’s offense finds its rhythm against Miami’s soft secondary coverage.
Mike Evans’ return from a six-game injury absence two weeks signaled a dramatic shift in the Buccaneers’ offensive weaponry. In his first game back against Atlanta, the Hall of Fame receiver hauled...
