Buffalo Rumblings
The Buffalo Bills fell to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night and dropped to 4-2, a record that’s very similar to their win/loss total through six weeks the last few years. This year may feel different to Bills Mafia due to the streakiness of Buffalo’s offense and the less-than-MVP-level play they’ve observed from quarterback Josh Allen.
Concerns about offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the ability of the Bills’ receivers to separate has stirred consternation about the passing game, and one would expect that to show up in any quarterback efficiency or production ranking.
Let’s cook up another bowl of STEW (Statistical Talent Evaluation Worksheet). For the uninitiated, QB STEW is a metric amalgamation I concocted in an attempt to have the flaws of one metric accommodated in the formula by the presence of another metric.
You can find the original article with reasoning here, although it’s important to note that DVOA and passer rating are no longer part of the concoction. The list has been conditionally formatted with color coding to better help you identify outliers that could be pulling the STEW up or down for a specific quarterback.
Some takeaways:
The Dallas Cowboys have a brutal defense in 2025, so the win totals might not be there for the Cowboys to draw attention to it, but quarterback Dak Prescott is having a much better season than in 2024. Even before his injury, Prescott ranked in the bottom third in QB STEW last season. His ball placement has been top notch and he’s avoided negative throws (reflected in the PFF grade) even while being without superstar wide receiver Ceedee Lamb.
Darnold’s overall STEW of 1.14 is one of the best in recent memory and better than multiple previous NFL MVP quarterbacks. Small sample size noted, his connection downfield with star third-year wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who’s yards per route run is currently one of the best marks in NFL history) is sure not to continue at this pace, but Darnold is making Seahawks fans very grateful for the Geno Smith/Darnold swap this past offseason.
Allen may not be playing at an MVP level, but his ninth-place STEW ranking still outlines his positive performance despite some struggles from the Bills’ passing game. His lowest-ranked composite metric is completion percentage over expected, which ties directly to the concerns over Keon Coleman’s ability to separate and the decreased completion percentage that comes from throwing contested balls (Coleman is 52nd in the NFL in catch rate amongst WRs with 10 or more targets).
As you survey this list, what are your observations?
…and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network — see more in my LinkTree!
