Browns draft history: Josh Allen joins Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes as ‘MVP QBs CLE passed on’ but that is outcome bias thinking

Browns draft history: Josh Allen joins Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes as ‘MVP QBs CLE passed on’ but that is outcome bias thinking
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NFL Honors honored another MVP QB that the Browns ‘could have drafted’

To be very clear before we get too deep into the discussion, this is in no way a defense of the Cleveland Browns nor excusing anything they did or didn’t do. In fact, once again the failures of the Browns may end up even more highlighted.

The Thursday before the Super Bowl, NFL Honors handed out awards for the best seasons in a variety of categories. Current Cleveland DE Myles Garrett came in third in his attempt to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year but still beat out rival TJ Watt.

The main event was QB Josh Allen dethroning QB Lamar Jackson for the league’s MVP award. Many were surprised because the same voters placed Jackson ahead of Allen on the NFL’s All-Pro team.

Many around the Browns (fans and media) noticed something else. Allen, Jackson and Patrick Mahomes have all won MVP awards and could have been wearing the orange and brown uniform:

Axelrod is not wrong, factually.

Let’s do a quick review:

2017 NFL draft - Patrick Mahomes

Cleveland owned the first overall selection and chose Garrett, who the entire league would have chosen in that same position. QB Mitch Trubisky was considered the top quarterback prospect in the class, leading the Chicago Bears to trade up one spot to make sure they got him.

Mahomes was drafted 10th overall after the Kansas City Chiefs traded up with the Buffalo Bills to get him. Eight other teams passed on Mahomes.

The Browns also owned the 12th overall pick but traded down to allow the Houston Texans to select QB Deshaun Watson.

2018 NFL draft - Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

Cleveland selected QB Baker Mayfield with the top pick before adding CB Denzel Ward with the fourth pick (thanks to the trade down with the Texans the year before). Sam Darnold, Mayfield and Allen were seen as top options but Allen, much like Mahomes, was seen as a player who needed a lot of development given his accuracy issues and level of college competition.

The Bills traded up (giving up two second-round picks) from the 12th pick to move up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to select Allen at number seven.

Jackson was the fifth quarterback selected in 2018 behind Josh Rosen (10th pick), Mayfield (1st), Darnold (3rd) and Allen (7th). Almost every team passed on the chance to select the Heisman Trophy winner before the Baltimore Ravens traded up 20 spots to acquire his services despite having Super Bowl-winning QB Joe Flacco in place as their starter.

Early results

  • Mahomes played one game as a rookie before taking over as a starter and being great in year two
  • Mayfield started 13 games as a rookie completing 64% of his passes; had 49 TDs to 35 INTs in his first two seasons
  • Allen started 11 games as a rookie completing just 53% of his passes and just 59% the...