ClutchPoints
The Denver Broncos entered Week 17 with a lot to gain, even against a Kansas City Chiefs team that had nothing to play for. The Broncos began the week as the frontrunner to clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the NFL playoffs, a position that has only strengthened since.
It did not come easy, but the Broncos left Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday with a 20-13 win over the Chiefs. That victory improved their record to 13-3 and kept them at the top of the AFC.
Had Denver beaten the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16, the No. 1 seed might already be secured. The Broncos, who entered Week 17 tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in the league, would have stood alone as the only 14-win team.
Instead, they suffered their first loss since Week 3 and watched their 11-game win streak wither away. They still entered the penultimate week of the 2025 NFL regular season with a shot at clinching the No. 1 seed, as slim as the window might be.
The Broncos are still favored to lock up the first-round bye, but it is unlikely to become official until Week 18. They still got two steps closer by beating the Chiefs on Christmas, and received some help from the Houston Texans on Saturday.
The Broncos might not have the No. 1 seed yet, but it is firmly in their hands to lose. They got one step closer on Saturday with the Los Angeles Chargers’ loss to the Houston Texans, which allowed Denver to clinch the AFC West.
The Broncos entered Week 17 with a 77 percent chance of clinching the division, according to ESPN. Their win on Christmas and the Chargers’ subsequent loss made them the first AFC team to win their division.
Denver also entered the week with a 55.5 percent chance of clinching the No. 1 seed, per FTN Fantasy. Those odds are the highest of any team in the NFL.
Had Los Angeles beaten Houston in its final regular season home game, everything would have come down to Week 18. The Broncos and Chargers end the year against each other at Mile High Stadium, and the entire division would have been at stake.
But with the loss, the 11-5 Chargers fell out of the running in the AFC West, and their small odds of earning the No. 1 seed vanished. It is now essentially a four-team race between the Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars and Buffalo Bills.
The Broncos’ win over the Chiefs and the Chargers’ loss to the Texans were two of four steps Denver needed to clinch the No. 1 seed in Week 17. If the Jaguars lose to the Indianapolis Colts and the Patriots fall to the New York Jets, Sean Payton and Bo Nix will waltz into Week 18 with the top spot in the AFC playoff bracket already in...
