Mile High Report
The Denver Broncos control their AFC West destiny after their 22-19 win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. According to ESPN, their division chances jumped to 77% after that win with a 97% chance of making the playoffs.
Defense wins championships … or at least the AFC West. The Broncos‘ defense held it down to defeat the Chiefs on Sunday night, and Denver has held opposing quarterbacks to a 46.8 QBR, the lowest in the league. That was apparent as Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes posted a 56.4 QBR, significantly lower than his season average of 72.8. Bo Nix has been uneven for the Broncos (43.2 QBR and 64.9% completion rate), but the defense’s ability to keep the offense in games while Nix gets into a rhythm has been a winning strategy for Denver.
- Make playoffs: 97%
- Win division: 77%
- Earn Bye: 30%
- Make Super Bowl: 17%
These are all great numbers heading into a Bye after playing 11 games. It’s been a long time, Broncos Country, but this franchise has finally recovered from their last dynastic run with the Peyton Manning era.
Looking over a FanDuel Sportsbook, the division odds look just as good. The Broncos are the heavy favorites now to take the AFC West from the Chiefs for the first time in a decade.
We should not get too confident, however, as the conference champion odds still have the Chiefs slightly ahead of the Broncos over there.
This is a big reason why I’ll be rooting for the Indianapolis Colts next week despite them having a tie-breaker over Denver. As fun as it is to see the Chiefs stumbling at .500, I would still consider them a dangerous football team to play on any given weekend.
The doubt is still there for Denver. When we get into the Super Bowl winner odds they are hard to find below eight other teams — including those damn Chiefs.
The only cure for doubters is to keep winning. But it sure is nice to cover a contender again.
