Mile High Report
As a rookie, Bo Nix threw for 3,775 yards. Last year, he slung it just shy of 4,000 yards.
In year three, Broncos Country predicts its young QB will break the 4,000-yard barrier, but perhaps just barely. A few of us are predicting a steeper rise this season with 4,500 yards or more, and only a few non-believers (just kidding) stayed in the 3000s.
Truth be told, I voted with the majority here but am secretly hoping it’s a little less. I’ll explain…
Since last week we found out that NFL execs and coaches believe Nix’s talent is in the bottom half of the league, compared to several QBs he outperformed last year — Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert — I thought it would be fun to see how many yards those three threw for in their first three years (you’re welcome for this highly extensive research via profootballreference.com, lol).
Allen: 2074 (2018); 3,089 (2019); 4,544 (2020).
Mahomes: 5097 (2018, first full year playing); 4,031 (2019); 4,740 (2020).
Herbert: 4,336 (2020); 5,014 (2021); 4,739 (2022).
We all remember that Allen was supposedly approaching “bust” status before his third-year breakout, and he’s been pretty unstoppable since. But without as many receiving weapons last year, Allen ended with his third lowest number of passing yards, just behind his first two seasons in the league.
Mahomes’ first three seasons were among his best ever for passing yards as the last two seasons have both been under 4,000 yards — another casualty of losing top receivers but clearly not a huge problem for him and the Chiefs’ offense.
Herbert also has had a drop-off since years two and three, which featured his best years for number of yards passing.
Not that any of these comparisons mean anything year to year or to Nix’s potential in year three, but they do highlight how irrelevant number of passing yards can be overall. Herbert’s lower passing yard seasons were also the Chargers’ best W-L records in a while, and Allen and Mahomes have led their teams to playoffs regardless of any passing milestones or achievements.
I always love an explosive passing game, but I do think a more prolific run game is important for the Broncos’ offense this season, so I’m hoping the total passing yards from Nix by the end of the season is under 4,000 if that means the rushing yard totals are up.
In the past five seasons, the Broncos have hovered just under 2,000 rushing yards, while the top rushing teams in the league have been closer to 3,000.
If Nix’s passing yards are below 4,000 but that means the running backs are getting closer to 2,500 yards rushing, I think this offense will be as explosive as it has been in a long time.
