Crossing Broad
The Super Bowl Most Valuable Player is traditionally a quarterback award. Thirty-three of the 58 MVPs have been quarterbacks, a trend that’s been in play a lot more in recent years.
Eleven of the Super Bowl MVPs since 2010 have been quarterbacks, including Super Bowl 59 MVP betting favorite Patrick Mahomes.
The three-time Super Bowl MVP and NFL champion is understandably the favorite, but the other quarterback in the matchup is not the second favorite.
Saquon Barkley is #2 across the sportsbooks to win the top individual award, listed anywhere from +250 to +300.
Jalen Hurts isn’t far behind, though, as the third betting favorite around +350.
The assumption is that if the Eagles win, Barkley will have a massive game, or Hurts will put up a high passing-yard total, similar to the one he produced in Super Bowl 57.
After Barkley and Hurts, the odds for Eagles to win MVP get significantly higher.
A.J. Brown checks in at +3500, DeVonta Smith is +6500, Jalen Carter is +7000, and Zack Baun is +9000.
Everybody looking for a dark-horse MVP winner will turn to Carter and Baun because defensive players always have super-high odds, and that would be a great strategy if history supported that. Von Miller, Malcolm Smith, and Dexter Jackson are the only defensive players to win MVP since Ray Lewis in 2001.
Smith and Jackson certainly weren’t household defensive names going into their respective MVP-winning performances.
Jackson had two interceptions in Super Bowl 37, Smith had 10 tackles and an interception return for a touchdown in Super Bowl 48, and Miller recorded 2.5 sacks and six tackles in Super Bowl 50.
The common denominator between all three performances, and Lewis’ Super Bowl 35 showing, is that they all came in blowouts. All four of the margins of victory were 14 points or higher.
So unless Baun or Carter make game-winning plays in the fourth quarter, they would have to win MVP through a double-digit win, which would be incredible given Mahomes’ title game history.
The same goes for George Karlaftis, Chris Jones, and any other Chiefs defensive players. You’re better off betting on defensive props for those specific players instead of wasting money on MVP.
The realistic pool of MVP candidates is Mahomes, Barkley, Hurts, Brown, and Travis Kelce.
We know for certain that Barkley, Brown, and Kelce will have a high volume of touches, while Mahomes and Hurts are automatically high on the MVP chart because of the position they play.
Xavier Worthy can be lumped in with the group of five listed above since he is Mahomes’ top target at wide receiver, but he may be overshadowed by Kelce.
Realistically, there are three dark horse candidates listed at +6000 or higher at Pennsylvania sports betting.
DeVonta Smith had seven catches for 100 yards in Super Bowl 57 and has knack for showing up in big games since his freshman season at Alabama.
Dallas Goedert’s had a fantastic postseason so far and had six catches for 60...
