Bills playoff picture: Buffalo can still miss the postseason in a doomsday scenario

After their Week 15 win, the Buffalo Bills are at a greater than 99% chance to make the playoffs according to the New York Times playoff simulator.

That’s mostly because the team vying for the wild card play each other with games between the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans on the board down the stretch. One of those teams will win the AFC South, leaving two in the wild card mix with the Bills and the Los Angeles Chargers. None of the individual outcomes that would doom the Bills are crazy to imagine, but all of them happening in this exact order is a pretty hefty parlay.

To be clear, this isn’t negative Bills fan scare talk. This is math.

So what’s the path for the Bills to actually miss the playoffs? Let’s run it out.

• Buffalo Bills lose at least two games of their last three games

This scenario has the Bills at 11-6 at best and 10-7 at worst. At 11-6 with one more AFC loss, the Bills are 8-4 in conference record. That tiebreaker is important. At 10-7, their AFC record is 7-5.

• Indianapolis Colts win out (or at least in Weeks 17 and 18)

The Week 17 and Week 18 games are the ones to watch out for. The Colts play the Jaguars and Texans in those two weeks. If they win those two, that gets Colts to 10 wins and an 8-4 AFC record, beating the Bills in a 10-7 tiebreaker. The Colts can win out and get to 11-6 and that 8-4 AFC record would be better than Buffalo in an 11-6 tiebreaker.

• Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans win their final games

We have the Texans and Jaguars losing to the Colts. If they both win one more game, Houston will have 10 wins with a had-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo and Jacksonville will be at 11 wins, ahead of Buffalo at 10-7.

If the Bills go 1-2 down the stretch, they will be 11-6 with an 8-4 AFC record. If Houston wins their final two games, they are 11-6 with a win over Buffalo. If the Jags win their final two games, they will have 12 wins and be ahead of the Bills.

The Texans play the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers in those two games. The Jaguars play the Denver Broncos and Tennessee Titans.

• Los Angeles Chargers win their last two games

In the doomsday scenario, the Houston Texans have to beat the Chargers. But Los Angeles would have two more games. They play the Dallas Cowboys and the Denver Broncos. One win from the Chargers moves them to 11-6 at worst. They would be tied in AFC record so it goes to record vs common opponents where the Chargers win. L.A. would be 5-1 against the Chiefs, Dolphins, Steelers, Eagles, and Texans. The Bills have losses to the Dolphins and Texans, so they’re behind the Chargers.

With Buffalo behind the Jaguars, Texans, Chargers,...