Buffalo Rumblings
The Buffalo Bills are struggling to field a dominant passing game, which is an uncomfortable thing to say about a unit led by quarterback Josh Allen. It’s also true, and something needs to change. Short of making a ground-shaking trade or finding a diamond-in-the-rough midseason free agent, it means that offensive coordinator Joe Brady must adapt his scheme to better fit with the players surrounding it.
Or at least at a play or two that leverages advantages found after the first six games. Adam Pensel shared some interesting data about Buffalo’s pass attack this week on social media, which might raise a few eyebrows within Bills Mafia. It seems the offense’s best success out of the slot has changed a bit in 2025. The good news first, per Pensel who, after analyzing data, found that tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receiver Joshua Palmer are “lighting it up when Brady aligns them in the slot.”
That is encouraging news, especially for those who’ve wanted to see more variety from the slot position. With statistics, major pluses or minuses can be found in small discrepancies, which is true here. Through six games this season, Kincaid is just shy of +1.2 in EPA per target out of the slot. That leads all players past or present since the 2023 NFL season. It’s also a massive leap for Kincaid over the past three seasons, where in 2023 and 2024 he was near a net zero in EPA per target out of the slot.
There’s only one season of data for Palmer, but the results through Week 6 are encouraging, with him claiming a +0.4 EPA per target aligned out of the slot. Furthermore, both Kincaid and Palmer have found success no matter where Brady lines them up on the field. On targets outside the slot, Kincaid averages just over +0.4 EPA per target; in the same metric, Palmer averages a clean +0.4 per target everywhere away from slot play.
With Palmer now dealing with a knee/ankle injury, might these figures change for Kincaid and wide receiver Khalil Shakir? Regarding Shakir, it’s clear that he’s regressed in 2025 as a receiver out of the slot, now snug up against a figure of 0 EPA per target as a slot receiver. That’s by far his lowest number as a pro, with a high-water mark of around +1.1 EPA per target out of the slot in 2023, trending downward to just below +0.4 EPA per target out of the slot in 2024.
There is great news when it comes to discussing Shakir’s role with the team in 2025. Per the figures that Pensel shared, it’s clear that Shakir’s best work has come when lined up outside the slot. Through six games, Shakir is just shy of +0.7 in EPA per target anywhere other than in the slot. That’s the highest figure for any Bills player since 2023 — which includes names such as Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and James Cook.
Pensel’s thread goes on to share...
