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There are just eight teams left in the NFL field as the playoffs rage on and the best of the best get ready for the Divisional Round. The AFC will kick things off on Saturday afternoon with a heavyweight matchup between the top-seeded Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills.
The Broncos had the Wild Card Round off after securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a stellar 14-3 regular season, dethroning the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West. The Denver defense has been very good throughout the season, and the Broncos have won a lot of close games to get to this point.
The Bills have had things a little tougher, but they still got into the postseason comfortably with a 12-5 mark behind another great year from Josh Allen. Buffalo went into Jacksonville, which had won eight games in a row, and knocked off the Jaguars 27-24 in the Wild Card Round to get to Denver with a trip to the conference title game on the line.
This is a fascinating battle because Denver has the better roster from top to bottom, but Allen is the trump card that can get Buffalo to the next round. Here’s a look at how he will fare against the Broncos defense, and how Vance Joseph’s group can slow him down.
Allen gets a lot of the praise in Buffalo, but the Bills have had one of the best running games in the league this season. James Cook won the NFL rushing title in 2025 with 1,621 yards, and the Bills finished third in the league in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate this season according to Next Gen Stats.
Buffalo couldn’t get anything going against a stout Jaguars front in the Wild Card Round, but Josh Allen was on fire for four quarters and was still able to help his offense move the ball consistently. However, against a Broncos team that has a much stronger secondary than the Jags have, the Bills need to run the ball to have success.
Denver’s season-long numbers against the run are similar to Jacksonville’s, but teams have had some more success against the Broncos late in the season. Vance Joseph’s defense held 10 opponents under four yards per carry this season, but nine of those games came before Week 11.
On the other side, the Bills have only been held under four yards per carry three times, including the Jaguars game, and have three games where the team averaged more than six yards per attempt. If Buffalo can keep it rolling on the ground with Cook, that could be a big factor.
In the passing game, the Broncos have a clear advantage on the outside. Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best cornerback in football and Riley Moss is a very good No. 2, even if he has been penalty-prone this season....
