ClutchPoints
The AFC East rivalry between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins takes center stage on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, and this matchup carries significant fantasy implications as both teams enter at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Bills arrive as 12.5-point favorites with a perfect 2-0 record, while the Dolphins desperately need to avoid an 0-3 start that would put their season in jeopardy.
The storylines heading into this game are compelling from a fantasy perspective. Buffalo’s dominance over Miami continues, having won six straight meetings and 13 of the last 14 matchups. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are dealing with offensive line struggles and inconsistent quarterback play from Tua Tagovailoa, who has shown signs of panic when his first read is taken away. This creates both opportunities and pitfalls for fantasy managers willing to dig deeper than the obvious plays.
Keon Coleman emerges as one of the most compelling sleeper plays in Week 3, particularly after his explosive Week 1 performance against Baltimore. The second-year receiver caught eight passes on 11 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown in that Ravens matchup, demonstrating his ability to step up in big games. While he struggled against the Jets’ elite secondary led by Sauce Gardner, posting just three catches for 26 yards, the Dolphins present a much more favorable matchup.
Miami’s defense has been particularly vulnerable through the air, allowing a league-worst 78.8% completion percentage through the first two weeks. The Dolphins haven’t allowed a player to record more than 100 receiving yards yet this season, but they’ve also faced weaker passing attacks than Buffalo’s. Coleman’s 15.5% target share from last season should increase with the departure of Gabe Davis, and he’s already shown he can handle increased volume in crucial moments. Against a Miami secondary dealing with injuries and inexperience, Coleman could easily return WR2 numbers as Buffalo’s passing game exploits the Dolphins’ defensive weaknesses.
Dalton Kincaid represents excellent value as a streaming tight end option, particularly in a game where Buffalo is expected to control the pace and score points. The second-year tight end has been Josh Allen’s most reliable target through two games, leading the team with a 22% target share in Week 2 against the Jets. His four catches for 37 yards on six targets may not jump off the page, but the volume and Allen’s trust in him are evident.
Kincaid’s strength lies in his ability to find soft spots in zone coverage, something Miami has struggled to defend based on early-season film. The Dolphins’ defense has allowed tight ends to exploit the middle of the field consistently, and their linebacker coverage has been particularly suspect. With Buffalo likely holding a lead for much of this game, expect plenty of underneath routes and red zone opportunities for Kincaid. His 15.5% target share from last season should translate to solid production against a Miami defense that ranks 11th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends but has shown clear vulnerabilities in...
