ClutchPoints
The Buffalo Bills has a near-flawless NFL Draft. Over the course of three days and nine picks, the team took players who filled needs and who should be able to contribute right away. However, there is one glaring mistake that general manager Brandon Beane made, and it was the most predictable misstep possible, as he’s done it several times before.
It’s no secret that the Baltimore Ravens have been one of the best-drafting teams in the NFL draft over the years, whether it’s GM Ozzie Newsome or Eric DeCosta making the picks.
Baltimore has an interesting draft philosophy based on an economics paper called The Loser’s Curse. The general idea is that, over the years, all teams are equally as good (or bad) at drafting, so the best idea is to either stay put or trade back to get more chances to succeed.
There is a lot that goes into this theory, and your mileage with it can vary, but overall, it seems to play out that the consistently best-drafting teams don’t trade up all that often. That’s because the truth is, no one truly knows if a prospect is going to hit or not.
For every Payton Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow picked No. 1 overall, there are equally as many JaMarcus Russell, Tim Couch, and Jameis Winston top selections. Not to mention the fact that Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold were drafted ahead of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, while Mitchell Trubisky went eight slots ahead of Patrick Mahomes.
Now, those last two examples are interesting because the Bills, Chiefs, and even the Ravens traded up to get Allen, Mahomes, and Jackson.
That can be explained in two ways. One is that trading up for a potential franchise quarterback is worth the risk because of how much more important grabbing that type of player is than any other player in the sport. Two is that they got lucky in those three specific cases, and you shouldn’t use positive results to justify bad process.
One person who does not subscribe to this theory is Bills GM Brandon Beane.
He loves to trade up, consequences be damned, because (apparently) he knows ball and wants the guys he wants in the round he wants them.
Unfortunately, the results in Beane’s case have helped prove the theories behind The Loser’s Curse as much as anything else.
After trading up to get Allen in 2018, the Bills have traded up in the first or second round several times, almost always with pretty bad results.
In 2019, they traded up two spots in the second round to draft offensive lineman Cody Ford, who started 29 games in three forgettable seasons in Western New York. In 2022, it was two slots in the first round to get Kaiir Elam, who was a massive bust, and Beane just traded away this offseason. The next year, the Bills moved up two picks again to take Dalton...
