Buffalo Rumblings
The last analysis I did to preview the Buffalo Bills’ Week 6 game against the Atlanta Falcons leaned heavily on the idea of that team’s volatility. It turns out the Bills got a very good version of the Falcons and came away with a loss.
I could write a similar article this week about the Carolina Panthers. A team that not only beat Atlanta, but dominated them with a 30-0 shutout. That makes it weird that just a few weeks later this same team struggled mightily to beat the New York Jets. As Bills fans likely remembered, Buffalo dominated the Jets.
This got me thinking that maybe the Bills have been a bit volatile too this season and perhaps they’re not so different from the Panthers. When I started stat diving, I noticed some other similarities too.
On offense the Panthers want to control the ball, with an average time of possession of 32:33 per game. That’s second-best in the league, right behind the Bills, that average 33:12 time of possession per game. I don’t know about everyone else, but when I think of ball control, I think of teams that run the ball well and do it often.
Apparently that thinking is correct when it comes to these two teams. The Bills and Panthers average 151 and 140 rushing yards per game, respectively. That’s first and third in the league. It’s not just a volume thing either, with Buffalo rushing 31 times per game and Carolina running the ball 29.7 times per game. That’s first and fourth in the league if you care about rankings.
It’s not just volume either in the run game. the Panthers have the eighth-best rushing attack in efficiency with 4.72 yards per attempt. The Bills are a tick ahead with 4.82 yards per rush.
I’m starting with these similarities because in a few moments I’m going to point out some critical differences. What’s striking to me from the rushing stats and time of possession is not necessarily how close the teams are right now, but how close they are to each other in who they’d like to be. Both teams seem intent on grinding their opponent down with the run game.
Here’s where the Spider-Man meme starts to fall apart though. The passing game. The Bills are 11th in the league in passing yards per game, but remember they emphasize the run game. They’re sixth-best in passing efficiency, gaining 7.58 yards per pass. Carolina is 29th in passing efficiency. They’re more than two full yards behind Buffalo, with 5.51 yards per pass.
This factors heavily into overall efficiency with the Bills having the fourth-highest total yards per play, and the Panthers landing at 25th in the league. You might surmise this plays into the ultimate stat, aka “points,” and you’d be right. Despite a couple recent shaky games Buffalo is still the fourth-best team in scoring — with 27.8 points per game (2.66 points per drive). The...
