Steelers Now
The news cycle in the month of July is typically the slowest part of the NFL calendar, with not much going on until teams arrive for training camp. With Aaron Rodgers officially in the mix for the 2025 season, and Monday’s blockbuster trade in the rear-view mirror, the biggest remaining storyline surrounding the Pittsburgh Steelers remains T.J. Watt’s impending contract negotiation with the club.
Even after acknowledging the intricacies of a high-stakes negotiation, everyone seems to be ultra-confident that this thing gets done eventually, with certain insiders indicating that he’ll once again be the league’s highest-paid edge rusher. Despite this whole ordeal feeling like a foregone conclusion, there’s a difficult question that virtually no one seems to be openly discussing: are we sure that this is a move that the Steelers should be willing to make?
The thought of Watt playing anywhere other than the Black and Gold almost feels sacrilegious at this point. Since being selected in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, he’s transformed himself into one of the most dominant defenders of his era. The list of accolades runs deep: seven Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pros, and a Defensive Player of the Year award for good measure. His six seasons of double-digit sacks are twice as many as anyone else that has ever played in Pittsburgh. Think of all of the legendary pass rushers that have come through the city. None of them have produced the type of statistical output that Watt has.
It’s true that his 2024 campaign ended in unceremonious fashion, not just as the leader of a defense that cratered down the stretch during the five-game losing streak to end the season, but also from a production standpoint. His 11.8 pressure rate was the lowest of his career per SIS, and his impact wasn’t nearly as profoundly evident as we’re used to seeing. But that underwhelming finish isn’t the main reason for some under-discussed skepticism about whether giving Watt another mega-deal is actually a smart move. When you take a step back and look at the timeline of where the Steelers are currently and where they’re heading in the near future, things are, well — complicated.
The Steelers over/under win total is currently set at 8.5 in Vegas, with them having the 19th-shortest odds to win Super Bowl 60. Even the rosiest of outlooks doesn’t paint this team as a legitimate contender, especially with them residing in the same conference as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. Could they sneak into the playoffs if the cards fall the right way? Absolutely. Are they going to be a legitimate threat once they get there? Nope. So with that in mind, let’s move to 2026, where Pittsburgh has already accumulated an impressive war chest of draft assets to make a big splash for a quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The hit rate on first-round passers making the leap to the pros is low, but let’s take the optimistic approach...
