Steelers Now
If one thing is for sure, it’s that this season has reminded us that the NFL is as unpredictable as it is entertaining. The Pittsburgh Steelers were playing some of their best ball of the season, riding high off a three-game win streak capped off with a climactic upset over the Detroit Lions, before falling on their faces a week later, losing to the 3-12 Cleveland Browns. While Mike Tomlin’s club does still control their own destiny as they enter the regular season finale, this recent chain of events has put their playoff aspirations on life support.
ESPN analytics gives the Steelers a 42.5% chance to win on Sunday night in their win-or-go-home clash with their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens. That part of the equation is relatively straightforward, but the biggest question at play here is who their first-round opponent will be. The rest of the AFC playoff picture has been decided already, but the next two weeks will help determine seeding for those vying for Wild Card berths. Today, we’re going to look ahead at those potential matchups by examining the pros and cons of each hypothetical outcome, ranking them in order of most-to-least favorable matchups.
Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has built a tough defense without a ton of star power by deploying mass amounts of zone-match coverages and light boxes to keep a lid on explosive plays. Derwin James is one of the most versatile defenders in the league with his ability to play the run like a linebacker, cover different body types in the slot, and be an asset in their sim pressures. When these two teams met back in Week 10, this unit was responsible for one of Aaron Rodgers’ worst games as a pro, amassing -0.5 EPA/play on 35 dropbacks in the loss. Justin Herbert’s known for the cannon on his right shoulder, but he’s been more willing to scramble of late, leading to a career high in rushing yards. The Chargers are a pass-first offense with a trio of talented, albeit somewhat inconsistent, pass catchers that make for difficult 1v1 covers.
None of Los Angeles’ offensive metrics are overly impressive, mostly because of the health and performance of their offensive line, causing them to allow pressure on 45.3% of their passing plays this season, tied for worst in the NFL. Despite offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s reputation as a run-game aficionado, their early rushing success rate of 35.8% tells the story of how often they find themselves behind the sticks on offense. Defensively, they will allow you to dink and dunk by design, and it’s also pertinent to have some designed split-coverage beaters in the game plan to take shots downfield. Opposing teams have profited some with perimeter runs away from edge defender Khalil Mack’s direction, some of which have popped for explosive plays.
Speaking of teams peaking at the right time, Liam Coen’s Jaguars have been one of the more pleasant surprises this season...
