Windy City Gridiron
Now that we’re full-on into the playoffs, it’s time to stop looking in the rearview with our Secret Superstars series, and start looking forward to the next game with Postseason X-Factors. The principle is the same — using game tape and metrics to uncover those hidden gems for every team who are primed to bring their best when their franchises need it the most.
The Chicago Bears have been the NFL’s Kardiac Kids this season, with a record-breaking seven comeback wins in the final two minutes of games. This speaks to both the team’s fortitude to get things done when necessary, and the inconsistency that shows up in the 58 other minutes of the game clock. In the Divisional Round against the Los Angeles Rams and their one-of-a-kind offense, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds could make all the difference… and maybe a comeback won’t even be necessary!
The Chicago Bears may be the most fascinating team left in the postseason, because you have absolutely no idea what you’re going to get — from game to game, drive to drive, and play to play. This is absolutely true on defense, where Dennis Allen’s squad has the NFL’s best turnover differential (+20 including the Wild Card round), and still ranks 25th in Defensive DVOA.
In the Divisional Round against the Los Angeles Rams at Soldier Field on Sunday night (6:30 p.m. EST, NBC/Peacock), you can add to the specter of that boom-or-bust defense the fact that Sean McVay, the Rams’ head coach and offensive mastermind, had a complete change in philosophy in-season, which is highly unusual. Before receiver Puka Nacua was injured in the first half of his team’s game against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, McVay hadn’t run a single snap with 13 personnel — one running back, three tight ends, and one receiver. Since then, McVay and the Rams have become the masters of 13 personnel, using it on 331 of their snaps (by far the most in the league), and the results overall tell you that it’s not changing anytime soon.
This season in 13 personnel, Matthew Stafford has completed 89 of 131 attempts for 1,097 yards, 20 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 133.2. And on 204 rushing attempts out of 13 personnel (again, by far the NFL’s most) the Rams have 973 yards, 578 yards after contact, 12 touchdowns, 27 broken tackles, and 58 first downs.
The Bears haven’t faced a ton of 13 personnel this season — most of it came against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Chicago’s 31-28 Week 12 win. Aaron Rodgers was out for that game, so against Mason Rudolph, the Bears got a Nahshon Wright interception on a deep pass from Mason Rudolph to DK Metcalf, but also allowed a six-yard Metcalf rushing touchdown, and a three-yard touchdown pass from Rudolph to tight end Pat Freiermuth.
So… yeah.
Somebody else who wasn’t on the field for that game was Bears linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who was dealing with a groin injury. Maybe things...
