ClutchPoints
The Chicago Bears are on top of the world heading into Week 14. Chicago defeated Philadelphia 24-15 on Black Friday, improving to 9-3 on the season. The Bears are still on top of the NFC North, holding a slim lead over the Packers, and look exactly as advertised during Ben Johnson’s rookie campaign at head coach.
Now the playoffs are just a handful of weeks away, which means that every game counts. And that is especially true in Week 14.
Chicago takes on Green Bay in the first of two matchup between the NFC North powerhouses in the month of December. Sunday’s game alone will not decide the division. However, whoever wins this game will have an easy path to locking up the division later this month. And with it, home-field advantage during the first round of the playoffs.
So where do the Bears stack up against the rest of the NFC headed into this big game? And how could a win or loss impact their playoff odds?
Below we will explore Chicago’s playoff odds heading into Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season.
FTN Fantasy’s DVOA-based playoff model has a surprisingly dim view of the Bears.
Chicago has a 69.7% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 14. Those are good odds, but significantly lower than the Packers who are at 90.4%
That is especially surprising since the Bears are 9-3 and the Packers are 8-3-1. Head-to-head tiebreakers are not in play yet, which suggests that Green Bay is a more fundamentally sound team than Chicago. At least in terms of DVOA.
This would explain the more specific odds related to Chicago too.
The Bears have a 39% chance to make the playoffs as a wild card team, but just 30.7% chance to win the division.
ESPN’s playoff model paints a slightly rosier picture for the Bears.
Their model gives Chicago a 76% chance to make the playoffs and a 35% chance to win the NFC North. These aren’t big improvements over teh DVOA model, but a slight edge nonetheless.
ESPN gives Chicago a 12% chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That has them behind the Rams (30%), Packers (17%), Seahawks (16%), and 49ers (15%).
The Bears only received 5% odds to make the Super Bowl. That matches the Lions, a team currently on the outside of the playoff picture.
I’m sensing a theme of fading the Bears, at least compared to their division opponents, in these playoff models.
Finally, there’s The Athletic’s playoff model.
Unlike the others, The Athletic includes the projected final standings for every playoff team in the league. Those projections have the Bears finishing the regular season 11-6 and making the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.
In that scenario, the Bears barely miss out on the NFC North crown to the Packers, who finish at 11-5-1.
The...
