ClutchPoints
Who would have thought that the Chicago Bears would be in this position. The hiring of Ben Johnson was expected to herald a change for the downtrodden franchise, but many expected that change to happen in two, maybe three years. And yet, the Bears come into Week 13 as the top seed in the hyper-competitive NFC North.
Coming into the year, a late-season battle for a Wild Card spot would have been the best possible scenario for the Bears. Now, there’s a path for Chicago to play a postseason game at home. Even with their record and their gutsy wins, though, the analytical models don’t seem to favor the Bears in the playoff push.
Let’s look at three major statistical playoff prediction models and see what they foresee for the Bears.
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA, is one of the most well-known predictors of a team’s performance through the season. It takes into account every single play and how successful it is, based on the down and distance, compared to the league average.
What does the Bears’ DVOA tell us about their playoff chances? Well, the FTN Fantasy website has the Bears’ DAVE (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early) at a -4.9%. That means that Chicago is 4.9% worse than the average NFL team, according to this site. Using this number, they simulated the rest of the season 25,000 times and totaled the odds for the Bears to make it.
Well, the odds aren’t as pretty as fans might think. Their model has the Bears making the playoffs just 51.4% of the time, far lower than their NFC North peers (Packers are at 79%, Lions at 82%). They have just a combined 15.8% chance of being one of the top four seeds (meaning they won the NFC North).
A deep playoff run is even more impossible in DVOA’s eyes. The Bears have a 4.0% chance of making the NFC Conference Championship, a 0.9% of advancing to the Super Bowl, and a 0.3% chance of winning it all.
ESPN’s playoff predictions foresee a better future for the Bears, but not by a lot. ESPN has the Bears advancing to the playoffs 62% of the time. Even then, though, the Bears have the eighth-best odds according to the website. That would leave them on the outside of the playoffs looking in.
ESPN is also a little more generous in the rest of their predictions for the Bears. The website gives Chicago a 24% of winning their division and an around a 3% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. ESPN also has the Bears earning a first-round bye 4%, compared to the 1.4% that DVOA gives them.
As for The Athletic, their model is the one that’s the most unforgiving to the Bears and their playoff hopes. Their current projected end-of-season standings has Chicago as the eighth seed, missing the playoffs despite finishing the season with a 10-7...
