Turf Show Times
A Cinderella story in Chicago? Probably not. This is the worst possible divisional round matchup for the Chicago Bears and the best possible divisional round matchup for the Los Angeles Rams.
Only two teams have allowed 36 passing touchdowns this season. One of those teams has the second pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and the other one is hosting the probable MVP quarterback in the divisional round of the playoffs on Sunday.
The Chicago Bears had the worst pass defense of any team in wild card weekend, allowing 4 touchdowns to Jordan Love and a playoffs-worst +0.28 EPA per passing play according to Next Gen Stats. That means that Chicago’s defense — which ranked 28th in passing touchdowns allowed and 29th in net yards per pass attempt allowed in the regular season — was essentially giving up one total point for every four PASS ATTEMPTS against the Packers.
The Jaguars were the second-worst pass defense of the weekend at +0.19 EPA/pass and they faced Josh Allen.
Just what do you think is going to happen when the Bears are facing the NFL’s leader in touchdown passes and the NFL’s leader in touchdown catches (Davante Adams) and arguably the best receiver in the NFL on the other side?
Has a team ever allowed this many touchdowns and reached the Super Bowl? Well yes, sort of. The 2022 Chiefs allowed 36 passing touchdowns but that was over all 20 games, including the Super Bowl. The Bears would need to all of a sudden become a lockdown pass defense and allow 0 more passing touchdowns the rest of the way.
The 2020 Titans, 2020 Browns, 2023 Eagles allowed 36+ touchdown passes, including playoffs, but they all lost in the wild card round of the playoffs. Chicago has now made it one round further, barely escaping the Packers by the skin of their teeth.
The Chiefs team that won the Super Bowl in 2022 allowed a lot of passing touchdowns but only 5.6 net yards per attempt. That ranked 4th in the league.
The Bears are allowing 6.8 N/YA this season. That’s ranked 29th.
That is in spite of Chicago leading the league in interceptions. First-team All-Pro Kevin Byard has a league-leading 7 interceptions and that gets the headlines. Byard has allowed the most passing touchdowns of any safety in the league also, and that doesn’t. “Breakout” star cornerback Nahshon Wright has allowed 6. Safety Jaquan Brisker has allowed 5 and has the 12th-worst passer rating allowed of any safety.
By pure Y/A, the Bears are allowing 7.6, which ranks 27th. The Bears allowed the second-most air yards of ANY team in 2025, a hair better than the Detroit Lions. By EPA on pass defense, the Bears rank 23rd even though interceptions should in theory give a defense a massive point boost. **Chicago...
