The Falcoholic
The Falcons will have to walk a tightrope to contend in 2025 without imperiling their future.
Draft season is in full swing, and teams are formulating their next course of action and prioritizing how to maximize their assets. Few teams are working with thinner margins than the Atlanta Falcons.
PFF has calculated the relative value of teams’ cap situations (effective cap space + restructure potential) and draft capital (pick value is based on the PFF WAR a player drafted at that pick generates on average during his first four years in the league). The numbers do not look good post-crunch.
Atlanta’s total offseason asset value is ranked 31st, below the New Orleans Saints, who both PFF and OverTheCap show have no effective cap space to work with. This will be the defining offseason for Terry Fontenot’s career, culminating in the one that saves or buries him.
Atlanta’s cap situation is marginally better than its draft capital situation. Atlanta ranks 28th in effective cap space (-14,522,553). The team’s restructuring potential keeps the problem from being too grim, but it shouldn’t be treated or viewed as a get-out-of-jail-free card. Restructure potential is less valuable than effective cap space; PFF believes it’s worth half the value of true spending power (effective cap). This is because restructures come with strings attached; a team’s approach dictates how many.
There are simple restructures (converts payments into prorated signing bonuses within the confines of the remainder of the contract; teams can unilaterally execute simple restructures without any action necessary from the player typically) and maximum restructures (increases the cap space via conversion into prorated signing bonuses by extending the contract or adding void years, which serve only as placeholders for proration; these typically require player consent as they are considered contract renegotiations).
Atlanta’s potential value that can be opened via simple restructures is $63,392,097 (13th most), resulting in an effective cap space of $48,839,544 (29th most). The potential value that can be created via maximum restructures is $146,037,254 (1st most), resulting in an effective cap space of $131,484,701 (14th most).
While some see the potential dollar signs as a green light for spending, in reality, the team is staring down a yellow that could flash red at a moment’s notice. Hitting the gas could result in a life-altering mistake. It’s important to note that an extremely unlikely Kirk Cousins simple restructure is valued at $17,496,667, 27.6% of the potential total simple restructure value.
Restructures are great in theory, but application and context are essential to consider before utilizing every possible cap mechanism. Teams with legitimate windows can risk future spending opportunities because their roster is sufficient and only needs a handful of immediate impact pieces. Restructure potential is used to get better or maintain stability for the upcoming season at the cost of having less cap maneuverability down the road.
In contrast, draft capital and effective cap space are used to acquire developmental talent and...
