The Falcoholic
The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia ranked all 32 NFL defenses heading into the 2025 season, and there’s no love lost for the Atlanta Falcons’ ragtag bunch of young talent. Kapadia slotted the upstart Falcons defense 29th, citing how relying on two rookie pass-rushers and a handful of promising secondary pieces may not be enough to drag this unit out of the basement it has occupied for the better part of the last decade.
Scenarios in which they field a good defense this year, according to Kapadia? Opponents fumble at historic rates, and the Falcons lead the NFL in takeaways. The rookie class turns into the best in league history. Jeff Ulbrich somehow morphs into Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio overnight.
That’s… about it.
Kapadia noted that this defense struggled last season, 29th in DVOA and second-worst in pressure rate, and they’re counting on rookies Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. to provide an instant upgrade. Could it happen? Sure, but it’s a big ask. Ulbrich has to squeeze every ounce of juice out of a young roster, leaning heavily on Jessie Bates, A.J. Terrell, and four rookies drafted in the top four rounds of this year’s draft.
However, here’s where history offers a glimmer of hope. After seeing Atlanta ranked 29th, I reviewed the past five seasons of bottom-five defenses in terms of EPA/play allowed to see what happened the following year. The results were surprising:
That’s the Falcons’ window. History says a turnaround is far from impossible. Even Atlanta proved it in 2023, jumping from 30th in EPA/play allowed to 11th in just one offseason behind the hire of now-Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. If this defense can even claw its way into the 18–22 range, pairing it with what could be a top-10 Michael Penix Jr.-led offense, the Falcons would be firmly in the NFC South race and finally positioned to end an eight-year playoff drought.
