Buffalo Rumblings
“To win games, you have to win the game and not lose the game, honestly. And that is how you lose the game.”
I’m not trying to talk crap about the Miami Dolphins, okay maybe a little, but when your head coach comes up with a gem of a quote like that doozy above, you know things aren’t going well. The Buffalo Bills are heavily favored to win in front of a lot of folks who’ll be watching Thursday Night Football but if any message has stuck with me over the years it’s to never underestimate an opponent.
With that in mind, let’s do a quick stat dive to see if the Dolphins are good at something.
We’re early enough in the season to proudly declare that none of these things have enough data points to have any sort of global validity. With the chance for outliers to drastically skew results, there might be some things to glean here, even if it’s just “where might outlier plays come from.” For the run game, the offense has had some decent areas on the field, with an elite-tier result running behind the left guard. Assuming that’s an actual area of strength, it could give them something to lean on against Buffalo.
On defense they’re hit and miss by direction with some zones looking elite (right guard and left tackle for instance). That’s juxtaposed against several abysmal zones like left guard and up the middle. Buffalo should be able to exploit some parts of the field… especially with Josh Allen and James Cook.
It’s a similar situation on offense for the passing game, with several zones looking good. The short left zone would be considered elite in completion percentage by my rule of four, and the average gain would be in the very good range. Against an injury-plagued defense, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s quick-strike style might have some opportunities.
The defense is another story though. When your best zone is rated 19th in completion percentage and no zones list an average gain better than 24th-worst in the league… you have an issue. On paper, this is a defense the Bills should carve up.
For the offense’s side of the ledger, red is bad. Try to avoid that at all costs. Sadly, the Dolphins can’t avoid that. They’re scoring nearly two field goals less per game than league average when it come to points. Their interception rate is high, as is their sacks/pass attempt measure.
One unexpected bright spot for Miami is their yards per play. It’s incredible to see that stat next to their yards per game number, which is quite a bit below average.
On defense there really are no major brights spots so let’s just bring your attention to points per game where they’re more than 10 points allowed greater than the league average. Yikes.
