Acme Packing Company
I have seen many a Green Bay Packer fan referring to the Chicago Bears and their lofty 9-3 record as “frauds.” I understand the impulse and would like nothing more than to join everyone in ridiculing the flaws of our neighbors to the South, but I don’t think that “fraud” is the right word. It may merely be a matter of degree, and I think it’s fine to call them “lucky,” but “fraud” is a bit much, for several reasons.
The most fraudulent team I’ve seen in recent years is the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, which I covered here. They were amazing frauds, finishing 28th in DVOA, posting a -3-point differential, and going 9-0 in one-score games (plus an additional 2-0 in 8-point differentials) until their 31-24 playoff loss to the Giants. That team went 13-4, but by Pythagorean record, they should have been five wins worse with around 8, and that doesn’t account for an easy schedule. FTN’s DVOA-based expected win total for the Vikings was 5.9. That’s not just a bit of luck, that’s “horseshoe made out of rabbit’s feet held together by crushed four-leaf clovers” luck. That sounds kind of gross, actually. Anyway, that team was a huge fraud.
The Bears are not totally dissimilar to that Vikings team, to be sure. Their point differential is just barely positive at plus six, and so they’re overperforming their standard Pythagorean record by three wins. They’ve also won their fair share of ridiculous games (for instance, they beat the Vikings because Devin Duvernay returned a kickoff 56 yards into field goal range with under a minute to go) against severely compromised opponents (the Vikings start JJ McCarthy, but they also got the Mason Rudolph Steelers, the Joe Flacco Bengals, and some Russell Wilson). And they’re 6-1 in one-score games, a trend that always comes crashing back to earth eventually.
But there are some distinguishing factors too. By point differential and EPA, the Bears are basically average, and while DVOA pegged those 22 Vikings as much worse, it ranks the Bears 19th, with 5.8 expected wins, which isn’t far off from the unadjusted stats. The Bears are secretly average, not secretly terrible. A win total being off by three also isn’t that much. Most teams don’t play exactly to their win total, and if they did it would be boring! The norm is to have SOME variance, and three wins after twelve games is on the high end, but hardly absurd. The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-6 with an expected record of 8-4 by point differential and 8.5-3.5 by DVOA. The Panthers have been outscored by 50, and should be 5-8, not 7-6. These things happen.
There are a few additional factors that I think distinguish the Bears. Chicago is 25th in defensive DVOA to this point, and they’ve allowed the fourth most points in the NFC; however, they have spent most of the season without defensive backs Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson. Johnson, in particular, is a real difference maker...
