Turf Show Times
With 5 divisional games left on the schedule in their last nine contests, the Los Angeles Rams can swing wildly in either direction between now and when the NFC playoffs are set. That journey continues this Sunday against the 6-3 San Francisco 49ers, but could their two remaining games against the 3-5 Arizona Cardinals be even harder to win?
It seems absurd to suggest that one of the worst organizations in NFL history could be better than one of the best, especially given their records, but a longer look at how they got to those records does imply that maybe the Rams need to be just as worried about Jacoby Brissett as they are about Mac Jones.
Wait, did I really just say that? The starting quarterbacks for the Cardinals and 49ers are Brissett and Jones…and they’re not expected to be replaced any time soon?
What a division.
Because the Rams lost to the 49ers once already, L.A.’s playing with fire if they lose to San Francisco again on Sunday. But that doesn’t mean that the 49ers are a great team, or even that they’re a better team than the Cardinals despite their opposite records.
49ers: +6 point differential
Cardinals: +9 point differential
Despite their records, the Cardinals have a better point differential than the 49ers. Arizona has scored 180 and allowed 171, while San Francisco has scored 194 and allowed 188.
The 49ers have played in one more game though so here’s how that breaks down:
Since Brissett replaced Kyler Murray, the Cardinals are scoring more points per game (25.3 points per game) and it’s just obvious how much better of a quarterback he is right now than the former number one pick.
Arizona hasn’t had a shutdown defense, but they are ninth points per drive allowed (1.95), while the 49ers rank 12th (2.00) under Robert Saleh.
Purely from a scoring perspective, the Cardinals are having a slightly better season than the 49ers. And defensively, it might not be that close. Look at the 49ers EPA (estimated points added) numbers over their last 5 games:
If you’re not familiar with EPA, and that’s okay if you’re not nobody is claiming that it’s the end-all be-all, here’s an explanation about how it’s formulated and why. The short answer is that EPA strives to assign value to each play based on how much more likely the play is to end in points. In other words, if you get a 5-yard run on 3rd-and-15 when you’re down 30 points, it’s not a very valuable play. But if you get a 5-yard run on 4th-and-goal from the 5 to take a 1-point lead in the fourth quarter, it’s a very valuable play.
That’s EPA. And a negative EPA is bad. You want a + positive EPA. Numbers like -12 are bad and EPA like -21...
