Hogs Haven
Over the past three off-seasons, Adam Peters has used a combination of draft picks, free agency and trades to rebuild a roster that was left depleted by his predecessor.
Throughout his time in Washington, Peters has consistently preached building through the draft. But he has deviated from that narrative on a few occasions, most notably when he traded draft picks for veteran starters Laremy Tunsil and Marshon Lattimore.
Peters’ spending in free agency has been moderate, for the most part, with his biggest splurges being Terry McLaurin and Tunsil’s extensions and this off-season’s acquisition of edge rusher Odafe Oweh. Aside from those deals, he has mainly signed players on mid-level to bargain short-term contracts.
Peters’ approach to roster renewal has been similar to that of the four successful rebuilds I profiled near the start of his tenure. That might not be a big surprise, since he was the EVP of personnel for one of the teams. Success in the draft played a big part in the revival of the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and Houston Texans under new GMs, following periods of mismanagement.
I have always taken it as gospel that building through the draft is the key to successful roster management. It is the mantra repeated by GMs of the most successful franchises. It makes sense from the standpoint of roster management in a salary-capped league. And the few attempts I’ve made to look into what makes successful teams tick seemed to back that up.
Others in the fanbase have expressed frustration with the slow pace of the rebuild and wished that Peters would lean more heavily on free agency to acquire marquee talents.
This article was inspired by an exchange in the Hogs Haven comments section during the lead-up to the draft. A regular commenter suggested that the draft was over-rated, citing the Patriots’ success in adding free agent talent ahead of the 2025 season. I was about to fire back with all the reasons building through the draft is essential to long-term success. But then I asked myself, “do I really know that’s true?” So I wrote down a note, “Look into building through the draft vs. free agency”. And here it is.
To get a handle on how championship teams’ rosters are built, I examined how each of the Super Bowl teams from 2020 through 2025 acquired their players. To have a basis for comparison, I also examined the rosters of teams which earned the first and second positions in the draft in the same seasons. The resulting sample of 12 championship teams and 12 worst-placed teams was sufficient for robust statistical analysis.
There are many ways to approach roster construction. Most attempts I have seen to address this question have focussed on starting players. I opted for a different approach for two reasons. First, the emphasis on starters overlooks the significant contributions of rotational players, backups and special teams player to...
