Big Blue View
How can the Giants avoid a disaster like 2024?
Depending on whom you listen to, the New York Giants are either only a few players away from contending or at the start of a complete rebuild. The truth is probably somewhere in between, but no one knows right now. You can credibly disagree with me if at this time in 2022 you predicted that the Giants would get to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, or if you predicted at this time in 2024 that Washington would reach the NFC Championship Game.
Whatever any of us thinks, the Giants need to improve at a number of positions, through a mixture of free agent signings, draft picks, and maybe an occasional trade. Trades are the least common and least predictable routes to roster improvement, so let’s restrict the discussion to the draft and free agency. What positions should the Giants target in each one?
Let’s assume that the Giants’ five biggest needs are, in decreasing order of importance, quarterback, cornerback, defensive tackle, edge defender, and safety. That doesn’t mean that they couldn’t use depth at the other positions, only that these are the five positions they are likely to spend the most capital (financial or draft) on in the next three months because one or more of the existing starters is inadequate. For the most part I won’t discuss specific names because it’s not yet clear who will and will not reach free agency.
The good news is that overall, the Giants have the seventh highest draft capital of all NFL teams, as estimated by Tankathon:
The Giants only rank seventh despite picking third because a few teams that draft lower have accumulated more picks. The chart above uses an outdated draft pick value formula as its basis, but the more up-to-date Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart also ranks the Giants seventh in draft power.
The bad news is that depending on which position you need to fill, this draft may or may not be well suited to your needs. I looked at four big boards for the coming draft, from the NFL Mock Draft Database, Pro Football Network, Pro Football Focus, and Dane Brugler of The Athletic, and asked how many players at each position are ranked in the top 32, 64, and 96, i.e., loosely Round 1, 2, and 3 values (Brugler thus far has only released a top 50 ranking which is several months old, so his only goes part of the way through Round 2). The four independent sources taken together (the “Sum” column, in some sense a consensus view) provide some general sense of where the pickings will be slim and plentiful on Days 1 and 2 of the draft:
(So, e.g., in the chart above the NFL Mock Draft Database has three quarterbacks in their top 32, two more ranked in the 33-64 range, and two more in their 65-96 rankings.) If you’re looking for an edge defender, as...
