Analysis: Were the Buffalo Bills flagged more than their opponents in 2024?

How did the Buffalo Bills do in the penalty department in 2024?

Hello everyone, it’s that time of year again. The one where I inundate you all with penalty data and facts aggregated from the previous year. For this entry I’ll be focusing on aggregate numbers. Stay tuned though, as the annual “Most Wanted” list will be soon to follow along with a deeper dive into trends. It’s time to dip our toes into the penalty waters of the 2024 season!

Standard and Advanced Metrics

Penalty Count

Now before I begin I want to add the disclaimer that these numbers inherently come from what was called on the field. I’m willing to hear arguments on “should have been called” or “should not have been called” but I don’t have ways to quantify that so you’re out of luck when it comes to objective conversation on that.

I bring this up because the data shows that overall the Buffalo Bills had an easier time with flags than their opponents when it comes to counts. The Bills were pretty darn close to exactly league average with just a slight tick to the right side of things. Their opponents on the other hand were not only on the other side of the ledger, but somewhat significantly so.

This is intriguing to me as usually a pool of almost half the league would trend to normalization and that’s not really what Buffalo saw this year. The Jets and Dolphins trended high with the Jets having the most flags per game this season which is likely a big factor here. When it comes to interruptions from the officials, the Bills were better off than their opponents.

While I like averages, especially after a full season of data, I also like to show the actual volatility that goes into them. The graphic above shows just Buffalo’s data for counts/true counts on a weekly basis. This is the weekly look at counts and true counts. The Bills may have been on the right side of average by a tiny bit, but the rollercoaster of this chart shows pretty clearly it was a week-to-week affair.

Penalty Yards

With both types of counts, both favored Buffalo. When it comes to assessed yards, it bears out as you’d expect with the Bills outperforming their opponents. When it comes to true yards though (data not available league wide) things are neck and neck.

For longtime readers you know what this means. For anyone new joining us today, what this shows is the reason this series began in the first place. The refs directly cost Buffalo fewer yards, but the bars on the right side of the graphic show that the Bills had more negated yards than their opponents.

On average, Buffalo had 18.1 yards negated by flags per game. Their opponents wiped out 10.25 yards per game on average.

I won’t expand much on this one since it’s similar to the counts but pay attention to the...