Buffalo Rumblings
It’s a Skarekrow stat dive!
When it comes to analysis, one of the luxuries of the business is the wide array or directions you can take it. While I’ve often steered opponent film review, sometimes we’ve seen plenty of an opponent and don’t really need details on their talent level. When it comes to Kansas City, I think we all know that level is sky-high. That doesn’t mean perfect though and that’s where data analysis shines.
Kansas City’s third down efficiency on offense with a comparison to the Buffalo Bills’ defensive numbers is a great example.
Starting our stat-dive with the suggested topic, we’re already off to a scary start. KC’s third-down rate during the regular season was 48.5%, second-best in the league. Would you like some good news before things take a turn for the worse? Against the Houston Texans, Kansas City only converted 36% of their 11 third-down tries.
Now back to the bad news. The Buffalo Bills defense allows a conversion on third downs 43.8% of the time, fourth-worst in the league. While the Wild Card round against the Denver Broncos was an incredible 22% allowed, the Broncos were the seven seed for a reason. Against the Baltimore Ravens, the turnovers were the difference in the game as Buffalo allowed an equally incredible 70% of conversions.
Thanks to the NFL tracking things in hyper-specificity, we can do a bit more detailed version of how the teams match up. For instance, Kansas City has converted exactly zero third downs of four or more yards by rushing the football. On 3rd & 2 and 3rd & 3, there’s not many attempts but they’ve converted four out of six tries. On 3rd & 1 they’ve succeeded 71% of the time. Those rates are good but also expected.
Even wackier, Kansas City has only attempted two rushing conversions on distances between four and nine yards. Neither attempt succeeded. What do these paragraphs mean? It means they’re one-dimensional on third downs, particularly in the ambiguous distances where you might expect the full playbook to be open. Kansas City does not run often on third down unless it’s 3rd & 1, and they’re not especially good at it.
While the one-dimensional things has some truth to it, remember they’re in elite territory in converting third downs. The passing chart is fun to look at.
They’re actually at their worst on very short distances. Their conversion rates on 3rd & 4 all the way through 3rd & 8 are through the roof.
What about the Buffalo Bills defense? What does that data show? I think I better just use another chart.
There’s no good way to say it. This is less than encouraging. Maybe we should look at some other stats to try to make ourselves feel better.
Via Pro Football Network, the...
