Buffalo Rumblings
Let’s examine some fourth-down aggressiveness
The Buffalo Bills fell yet again to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game and now we have months to think about it! As I tend to do, I began the look-back with penalties, but now it’s time to move on to football plays of the “counted” variety.
With a little extra time to do this, maybe you’ll get more than one topic out of me. For now though, you have Skarekrow’s look at the Bills’ fourth-down tries to “enjoy.”
A major reason to do any project like this is that the sample size is large enough to look for variance and meaning between data points. The Bills attempted zero fourth-down conversions in the first half on three opportunities. They went punt, field goal, punt. To be clear: These came from distances of six, five, and 10 yards.
In the second half Buffalo faced six fourth downs. They tried to convert all of them. The first four were from a distance of one yard while the final two were four and five yards respectively. Let’s see how things went.
The Bills were in field goal range and down by five. They had forced a stop on Kansas City’s opening drive of the third quarter, which should have given the team some hope.
Head coach Sean McDermott went aggressive. For their first crack at converting a 4th & 1, Buffalo was actually faced with a “long one,” perhaps a bit closer to two.
Rather than attempt a Shnowplow, they spread the skill players out a bit on the right side and you can see the resulting defensive response. The linemen all blocked for Josh Allen and he gained the “long one.” A big reason Allen has been effective is that by sheer mass and muscle he can lean forward and gain a yard even in a small pile.
Buffalo had 3rd & Goal at the one and an Allen “sneak” failed. I may not come back to it, so I’ll lay it out here.
The Allen run was not really a Shnowplow, as Allen sidestepped and chose his spot rather than immediately dive forward. This seemed planned as well with the running back on the field not committing to an immediate shove. Back to the play you’re looking at...
The Bills changed things up completely with two backs flanking Allen, which is definitely not their usual “X & Short” play design. This turned out to be an option play with possibilities for Allen, running back James Cook, and tight end Dawson Knox all on the right side.
Allen held onto the ball as long as he could, which freed Cook up from the near defender. This did by nature of the play design free up the guy on Knox who forced Cook into Olympic-worthy breakdance moves to score the touchdown.
We’re at Buffalo’s third try,...
