BroBible
Many members of the “NFL Is Rigged” crowd would lead you to believe Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs managed to build a dynasty with some help from officials who’ve bailed them out with questionable penalty calls. Now, a study that took a closer look at that conspiracy says there may be some merit to that claim as far as the playoffs are concerned.
Any franchise that manages to cement itself as the team to beat for years on end is going to attract a legion of haters, and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have managed to do exactly that while occupying the throne that Tom Brady and the Patriots were perched upon for close to two decades.
Kansas City had already cemented itself as the NFL’s most marketable team before Travis Kelce hard launched his high-profile relationship with Taylor Swift, and while the Chiefs have won three Super Bowls while appearing in five the past six by being an objectively good football team, plenty of fans would tell you they’ve gotten some help from the “script” that’s rigged games to their advantage.
The most commonly cited piece of evidence is the number of favorable calls the Chiefs have gotten in key situations, especially the ones that tend to go their way during an offensive drive led by Mahomes. One stat that seemingly proved that was the case at first glance went viral last season despite failing to paint a wholly accurate picture, but we’ve been treated to a fairly exhaustive study that’s added some more fuel to the fire.
The paper in question, titled Under (Financial) Pressure, was published in The Financial Review at the end of August and put together by three authors who examined “13,136 defensive penalty calls spanning the 2015–2023 NFL seasons” with a particular focus on the “Brady-era New England Patriots” and the “Mahomes-era Kansas City Chiefs.”
The study set a baseline before taking a look at calls that have gone Kansas City’s way in the playoffs.
It asserts flags on the defense “yield 2.36 more yards” than normal for the Chiefs in the postseason, noting they’re 28% more likely to occur on a “subjective” call and 23% more likely to result in a new set of downs compared to those in the regular season (it explictly notes there is “no comparable postseason effect for the Brady-era Patriots, the Alex Smith–Andy Reid-era Chiefs, or other recent contenders such as the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, or San Francisco 49ers”).
The authors go on to assert that the increase is the result of “referees with prior playoff exposure” to the Chiefs “adjusting their decision-making in ways that may reflect league priorities” due to the increased television ratings for games involving Mahomes and Co.
They also stated they had “no conflicts of interest,” although I can’t say I’m entirely familiar with the ethical expectations concerning the disclosure...
