A Mock Draft (and a Disclaimer) for Bears Fans

Mock drafts are fun, but four-round mock comes with a dose of reality up front that adds just a little bit of pramgatism to the fantasy.

While just under half of the fanbases in the NFL are focused on playoffs, for others it is now mock draft season. This is my first mock for the season, and it begins with a rational disclaimer instead of a descent into the fun diversion offered by most simulators.

THE DISCLAIMER

The “breaking point” for finding an elite player is around the 11th pick in the draft. How clear of a breaking point is this? From 2011-2018, 50 of the 88 players drafted in the Top 11 earned a Pro Bowl in their first five years; in that same time, only 53 of the other 167 players drafted in the remainder of the first round could say the same.

• The “Top 11” selections (88 picks) found 33 players who earned multiple Pro Bowls, while the rest of the first round (167 picks) found only 31 players.
• Those 88 picks made at the top found 11 players who earned multiple 1st-Team All Pros in their first five years, while the rest of the draft (1,918 picks) only produced 13 players.

Of note, #11 is slightly more productive than #10 in some ways (5:4 in Pro Bowls), but it behaves more like #10 than it does #12, and from 12-17 is where a few players start having more trouble staying on the field or serving out their contracts. It’s worth pointing out that there is a small “quarterback effect” here, because 12-17 is also where teams reaching for quarterbacks who have fallen.

However, when draftniks and former team executives talk about just taking the best player available, the “Elite Eleven” justifies this approach. Each draft seems to have a double-handful of players who are simply better than the rest, and it makes sense to take these players when they are available, regardless of positional need.

For the Chicago Bears “fans” disappointed in the win over Green Bay, keep in mind that for non-quarterbacks taken from 6-8, there is a roughly even chance of ever making the Pro Bowl, the same as for non-quarterbacks taken 9-11. Players taken later actually have a slightly greater chance of making multiple Pro Bowls, but players taken earlier have a slightly greater chance of earning 1st-Team All Pro distinction. Each grouping has only one player to “bust.”

Thus, trading down is fun from a “game theory” perspective, but trading out of the “Elite Eleven” very possibly hurts the team’s chances of getting a true star, so long as they correctly assemble their board in the first place.

THE DRAFT

With that disclaimer out of the way, it’s time to put together a 4-round mock draft for Chicago in the hopes of better things to come. For reference, this was put together using the engine at Pro Football Network.

#10 Mason Graham, DL, Michigan

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