Daily Norseman
With the 2025 season in the rearview, let us take a premature and (likely) abysmal early look at the Minnesota Vikings’ 2026 opponents and how I feel about them – i.e., how difficult I expect them to be.
What else are we going to talk about? Sam Darnold in the NFC Championship Game? No thanks. It was the right choice for the long term, by the way. I believed it then; I believe it now.
THE HISTORY OF COMPETITIVE BALANCE
Of course, I’m hedging my bets because I’m often wrong (duh), and the turnover among playoff teams year-to-year is consistently unpredictable.
Over the past 25 years, about 48% of playoff teams failed to qualify the previous season. Since the playoff expansion to 14 teams in 2020, that number has dropped to around 44%. In all, about six new teams make it every season.
Some of this has to do with luck (e.g., key injuries and turnovers that can’t be replicated year-to-year), but it mostly has to do with the parity that comes with a hard salary cap. There are no L.A. Dodgers in the NFL, and that’s a good thing. Teams can go from seven wins to 11 in no time at all. Of course, the reverse can happen, too. You don’t have to tell a Vikings fan how difficult it is, considering we haven’t made the playoffs in back-to-back years since 2008 and 2009. Every time I write that, I get nauseous.
Here are the Vikings’ 2026 opponents (it will be the NFC’s turn to play nine home games):
Home: Bears, Lions, Packers, Falcons, Bills, Panthers, Dolphins, Colts, Commanders
Away: Bears, Lions, Packers, Patriots, Saints, Jets, Buccaneers, 49ers
A lot was made of the Vikings losing out on the “last-place” schedule after beating the Lions on Christmas Day. A reminder: that affects only three of the 17 games; the NFL’s rotating schedule already has the other 14 locked in. So instead of facing the Titans, Giants, and Cardinals, the Vikings will draw the Colts, Commanders, and 49ers.
The glaring difference is the 49ers rather than the Cardinals. Then again, the Giants just hired John Harbaugh and have talent, so it would shock no one if they were better than the Commanders next year. Likewise, who will be the Colts’ QB next season? I can’t say with certainty that they’ll be considerably better than a Titans team with an improving young QB who could likely be paired with the #1 wide receiver in April’s draft. See what I mean?
LOOKING AT THE 2026 SLATE
We all know what they say about assumptions. Still, for this exercise, I believe we’ll have an improved J.J. McCarthy at QB1, with a proven, reliable backup with considerable starting experience. Let’s say a Mac Jones, Geno Smith, or Marcus Mariota type. Let’s really get nuts and suggest maybe even Kirk Cousins is back here. We’ll also embrace the doom that comes so naturally to Vikings fans and say Brian Flores moves on (and it better...
