For The Win
After a rough start to the 2025 NFL Playoffs, we’re back in the black. A four-unit swing in the Divisional Round kept our betting expert, the Rhode Island Scumbag, and I profitable, albeit only modestly. We’re up a combined three units through two weeks of the postseason — roughly on par with our 18 unit advantage over the 18 weeks of the regular season.
Now we head into a two-game slate that will decide who plays in Super Bowl 59. Will the Washington Commanders continue their Cinderella run that started with a Las Vegas win total of 7.5 games and threatens to end with the Vince Lombardi Trophy paraded through our nation’s capital? Will the Buffalo Bills finally return to the glory days of Marv Levy while Levy’s still around to enjoy it?
Let’s try and make some money this week. All Scumbag analysis and picks are in blockquotes below. My non-Scumbag picks follow.
Last week would’ve been much better had Philadelphia covered, rather than the end result of a gross push. Still, a two-unit profit wasn’t terrible. If anyone chose to parlay the Saturday games, you net a tidy profit.
With two games to go, it’s more of a coin flip than anything else in both cases. Keep in mind, underdogs last week went 2-1-1. Let’s take a look at what’s in store this week.
Buffalo heads to Kansas City to exorcise the demons and break through for their first Super Bowl since 1993. I’m not making the mistake I made last week and betting against them to do so.
Kansas City is looking for a three-peat… which means they have played more games in the NFL in the past three seasons than any other team. At some point, fatigue has to catch up with them.
The fact last week’s Buffalo victory was more of a team effort than the Josh Allen show leads me to believe they are gelling at the perfect time. Kansas City has struggled (but notably prevailed) throughout the season. I’m thinking this is Buffalo’s Little Giants moment (only takes one time).
I’m sure Scumbag 1.0 is thinking “what an idiot!” as he reads this, but he did adopt KC as his “new” team (abandoning the Patriots in their darkest hour) [Editor’s note: Disgusting.] so there’s some bias at the heart of it. Give me the Bills finally toppling the Chiefs for a unit.
I’ve stuck with underdog Washington since (Super) Wild Card Weekend kicked off. This week changes nothing.
Philadelphia took care of business against Los Angeles last week exactly as expected; through Saquon and the run game. In terms of wagering however, they pushed. A victory for no one.
The passing game clearly isn’t up to par with the run game....
