ClutchPoints
In this highly competitive fantasy football landscape, understanding which running backs may be overvalued based on their 2025 average draft position (ADP) is crucial for gaining an edge. While some backs come off the board early due to recent success or hype, not all projections justify their draft prices. Avoiding these players can help roster builders maximize value and potential upside. Here are five running backs who appear overvalued in most drafts based on their current ADP trends and underlying concerns heading into 2025.
Kyren Williams enters the 2025 fantasy season with an ADP inside the top 15 picks in many formats, a dangerous range for a player with multiple red flags. Despite a breakout 2024 season that put him among the league’s top backs, Williams now faces more competition with the addition of Davante Adams in Los Angeles. Also, the Rams drafted Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter in recent drafts, both talented runners who are poised to siphon meaningful snaps and goal-line touches away. While Williams recently signed a contract extension signaling commitment from the team, his heavy reliance on volume makes him vulnerable if his workload diminishes. This, combined with an offensive line that wasn’t dominant last year and a tougher schedule ahead, suggests Williams’ high draft price could come with costly regression risks, making him an overvalued selection in early rounds.
Coming off a strong but injury-plagued stretch in recent seasons, Breece Hall’s ADP has climbed considerably, landing him frequently in the first few rounds. Hall possesses elite talent and explosiveness, but the New York Jets have openly committed to a two-back system, pairing Hall with rising star Braelon Allen. This shared backfield approach implies significant split opportunities that will cap Hall’s ceiling. Without a clear bell-cow role, Hall’s weekly consistency becomes less reliable, especially in PPR leagues where target volume dictates scoring upside. Moreover, after missing extended time due to injury, Hall carries an elevated health risk. Due to these factors—workload uncertainty and injury history—Hall’s current ADP oversells his projected weekly value, marking him as an overvalued option.
Ashton Jeanty is widely regarded as a promising rookie with impressive athletic traits, which has driven up his draft stock substantially, placing him around mid-round ADP levels as a budding bell-cow back. However, the lack of NFL experience paired with a run-blocking unit that was inconsistent in 2024 raises legitimate questions about Jeanty’s short-term fantasy impact. He must prove durability over a full season and overcome the adjustment period most rookies face transitioning to the professional level. While he has potential, banking on him delivering RB1 production in his first year is a risky proposition. Jeanty’s ADP currently suggests more guaranteed upside than he can realistically offer, branding him an overvalued pick for 2025 drafts.
James Cook, despite showing big-play ability and a strong receiving skill set, reflects his current ADP. His ADP has climbed as managers buy into his what he...
