ClutchPoints
Every fantasy football season brings a new set of debates surrounding player values. Average Draft Position (ADP) often serves as a guide for drafters, but it can also create blind spots and inflated expectations. While quarterbacks remain one of the most consistent and predictable positions in fantasy, the temptation to chase name value or last year’s production can push certain passers higher than they deserve to go. This year is no different, as several quarterbacks are being drafted well above their true fantasy outlook.
Below, we’ll break down five quarterbacks whose 2025 ADP suggests they are overvalued and explain why fantasy managers should consider passing on them at their current draft cost.
It feels almost sacrilegious to label Patrick Mahomes “overvalued,” but in the fantasy football world, draft price matters more than talent. Mahomes is currently being selected as a top-six quarterback in most drafts, yet the past two seasons have shown a dip in his week-to-week ceiling compared to the early years of his career. The post-Tyreek Hill era has forced Mahomes into more methodical drives, and while he’s still elite in real-life football, his explosive 40-point fantasy weeks are less common.
The Chiefs have leaned more heavily on balanced offensive drives, red-zone efficiency from Isiah Pacheco, and controlling tempo rather than relying exclusively on Mahomes’ arm. He remains as reliable as they come in terms of consistency, but if you’re spending capital on him in the second or third round instead of finding a quarterback later, you may miss out on more impactful value elsewhere. Bottom line: Mahomes is overvalued at current ADP—not because he won’t deliver, but because his ceiling doesn’t separate him from the mid-tier options enough to justify draft cost.
Baker Mayfield’s late-career resurgence has been one of the best stories in the NFL, and last year’s playoff push cemented his reputation as a gritty competitor. But fantasy managers may be chasing points from 2024 that won’t repeat this season. Sitting at the QB7 range in ADP, Mayfield is being drafted as a bona fide QB1 in fantasy leagues, a price that assumes he will continue to deliver weekly production on par with the top half of the position.
The risk? Mayfield’s efficiency metrics are volatile. His success in 2024 leaned heavily on elite contested-catch performances from Mike Evans and steady play in clutch situations. At age 30, he’s not bringing high rushing upside, which makes him extremely dependent on touchdown variance. If either Evans misses time, along with the time Chris Godwin will be gone, or if Tampa Bay pivots slightly more toward a balanced game script with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, Mayfield’s weekly outputs could look more like high-end QB2 numbers than top-7 production. He’s a strong real-life story, but in fantasy, drafters are paying for a ceiling that may already be behind him.
Dak Prescott is a name brand at this point, and fantasy managers continue to draft him...
