Sportsnaut
The 2025 NFL season is still a few months away, but the arrival of training camp generates excitement among all 32 clubs and their fan bases. Every year, we see breakout NFL teams, as we did in 2024 with the Washington Commanders and Denver Broncos. However, a few teams take a significant step back each year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars experienced a five-win dip last season, while the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers went from clubs with double-digit wins to a combined 13 victories. Regression is inescapable for a few teams every year, and we’re highlighting several that could see a multi-game drop-off from 2024 to 2025.
Let’s dive into our list of the five NFL teams that are likeliest to regress this upcoming season.
The Seattle Seahawks downgraded at quarterback this offseason with the move from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold. They also thrust Darnold into an uncomfortable situation, asking him to overcome his issues when pressured while playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. It’s a recipe for disaster. It’s more likely that Seattle gets the quarterback who posted a 78.3 QB rating with a 63-56 TD-INT ratio in his first 56 games than the MVP-caliber quarterback who compiled a 106.4 QB rating and a 35-12 TD-INT line in his first 16 games with the Minnesota Vikings last year. The Seahawks don’t have the infrastructure to help Darnold perform anywhere close to the level we saw in 2024. With inferior quarterback play, a 10-7 team last year will win no more than seven games this fall.
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Listing the Kansas City Chiefs among the NFL teams most likely to regress next season is primarily based on their win total. A 15-win club in 2024, Kansas City finished 11th in point differential (+59), just ahead of the nine-win Cincinnati Bengals. In 2025, the Chiefs have the sixth-hardest projected schedule in the NFL, with matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Washington Commanders, and Houston Texans. On top of that, the AFC West is stronger than it has been in years. The Chiefs might only be an 11-win team this season—a four-game drop—but that would match their win total from 2023, when they went on to win the Super Bowl.
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Led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels playing at an MVP-like level, the Washington Commanders were the breakout team of the 2024 NFL season. The front office responded to a playoff run to the NFC Championship Game by surrounding Daniels with more offensive help. However, Washington is still a prime candidate for regression this fall. For one, last year’s 87 percent fourth-down conversion rate (20-for-23) is unsustainable. There was also some extreme fortune in a few victories, with the Commanders benefiting from facing clubs with injured quarterbacks. Washington will still be a playoff contender...
