Turf Show Times
There is the saying that styles make fights and this Week 11 matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks is the ultimate clash of styles. These are two teams that were built to beat each other. When you look at the offensive side of the ball, many of the Rams’ strengths line up with what the Seahawks also do well. Some of the same can be said for when the Seahawks are going up against the Rams’ defense. Whoever wins this game is going to take early control of the NFC West.
In recent years, these are the games that the Rams have gotten up for. Matthew Stafford is 5-0 against the Seahawks since joining the Rams. Over the last two years, the Rams are 5-0 in NFC West games after October taking away a Week 18 loss in which they played backups. In the Sean McVay era outside of 2022, they are 17-1 after the month of November against NFC West opponents not named the 49ers. Last season, the Rams got back into the NFC West with a win against the 4-4 Seahawks. This is the biggest game of the NFL season up to this point. Here are five keys to victory.
It’s going to be key on both sides of the ball for the Rams to have success on early downs. The Rams need to be able to get into a positive game script and avoid third-and-long. On the defensive side of the ball, winning on early downs will allow the Rams to get into the dime packages that they want to live in more than other teams. However, from an offensive perspective, that starts by finding success in the run game.
One of the more interesting matchups in this game is how the Seahawks will match the Rams in heavier tight end looks. The Seahawks match 12 and 13 personnel with their base defense at the lowest rate in the NFL. In fact, when facing sets that feature multiple tight ends, the Seahawks defense has matched with five or more defensive backs 75.3% of the time this season. A big reason they are able to do this is because of Nick Emmanwori’s skillset and Demarcus Lawrence, Leonard Williams, and Jarran Reed are all fantastic against the run. Lawrence and Nwosu do a nice job setting the edge and forcing things inside where Reed and Lawrence eat space and get up-field.
When the Rams are in 12 or 13 personnel and they run against nickel, they have just a 52 percent success rate which ranks 16th. Against base, that improves to fourth at 54.7 percent. The Rams have to be able to find success in the run game against the Seahawks in nickel to get them into base. It’s a small sample size of just 12 plays, but the Seahawks rank 32nd in EPA per rush when defending 13 personnel. When the Seahawks are in base, they rank just...
