Turf Show Times
The Los Angeles Rams will face the San Francisco 49ers on a short week on Thursday Night Football. Coming into this one, the 49ers will be short-handed without Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall, but division games are always more difficult than they appear. The Rams certainly can’t overlook the 49ers and take them lightly or they’ll be in trouble. Here are five keys to victory for the Rams against the 49ers.
For the Rams to win this game, they are going to need to find ways to get to Mac Jones. Utilizing blitzes is going to be the best way to do it. Jones has only completed 50 percent of his passes this season against the blitz. His -11.7 percent CPOE against the blitz is one of the worst numbers in the NFL.
Normally the left side of the 49ers offensive line isn’t where you would want to focus the pass rush as this is where Trent Williams resides. However, Williams has struggled this season. When the 49ers played a good pass rush against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, Williams allowed 10 pressures which is more than any game of his career since at least 2018. Outside of that game, his pressure rate of 8.9 percent from Week 2-4 would be the highest of his 49ers tenure. Additionally, Connor Colby has allowed an 11 percent pressure rate at left guard. The Rams do tend to overload their blitz packages and go heavy personnel to one side. In order to get to Jones, they’ll want to do the same thing on Thursday night.
The Rams have utilized more 12 personnel this season, but against the Indianapolis Colts, they were back in 11 personnel at an 85 percent rate. As mentioned in last week’s keys to victory, that should have been part of the game plan based on the looks that the Colts would give them. While the Rams will be without Tyler Higbee, they should get back to more 12 personnel looks against the 49ers.
Ever since McVay arrived in Los Angeles, the 49ers have done a good job defending the Rams in 11 personnel. The Rams have averaged 4.8 yards per play against the 49ers in 11 personnel since 2017 compared to 6.1 yards per play against other defenses. Against 12 personnel last week, the 49ers matched with heavier packages, playing four or fewer defensive backs at an 84.2 percent rate. If the Rams utilize 12 personnel, they should be able to get favorable matchups on the backend in the secondary. Last week out of 12 personnel, the Jaguars were 6-for-8 and averaged 6.38 yards per attempt which was the ninth most in Week 4.
While the 49ers have struggled with injuries this season, Christian McCaffrey has managed to stay healthy. On Thursday night, the 49ers will be without Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, and Juan Jennings. Simply put, McCaffrey...
