Turf Show Times
The Los Angeles Rams will be going for the season sweep over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. Much like the matchup in Week 11, this one is important. Whoever wins will have the upper hand in the NFC for the No. 1 seed as well as in the NFC West. The Rams have gotten the best of Sam Darnold over the last two years, but Thursday’s game could determine whether or not a third matchup between these two is played at SoFi Stadium or Lumen Field. Let’s get to this week’s keys to victory.
Sam Darnold consistently struggles with pressure. However, it’s not just any pressure. Darnold struggles with interior pressure. The Rams will not win this game if they can’t take away the immediate throw, force Darnold to double clutch the ball, and then make him uncomfortable with pressure inside. A big difference in this game will be Jalen Sundell returning at center instead of Olu Oluwatimi for the Seahawks. They will be without their left tackle in Charles Cross, but this also isn’t last season when the Seahawks replaced him with Stone Forsythe.
Over the last two years, Chris Shula and the Rams have put out the blueprint for beating a Darnold offense. They do this with interior stunts and simulated pressures. It’s that type of pressure that Darnold has consistently struggled against. If the Rams are going to win this game, it starts with forcing Darnold into negative plays and mistakes. To do that, they need to make him uncomfortable.
Without pressure, Darnold ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per dropback. Under pressure, Darnold ranks 24th at -0.53 EPA per dropback. Under pressure, he has a 5.5 percent turnover-worthy play rate compared to 2.6 percent when kept clean. Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young need to have big games. To do this, the Rams need to set up obvious passing situations that the defense thrives on. On early downs, the Seahawks encounter a stuffed run 75 times which is the most in the league. The Rams have to stop the run early to earn the ability to rush the passer.
The Rams are catching Darnold at a fascinating time. Over the past two years, Darnold hasn’t shown that he can keep his level over the course of 17 games. Darnold’s EPA per dropback cuts in half from 0.21 in Weeks 1-9 to 0.11 in Weeks 10-18. His turnover-worthy throw percentage jumps from 3.6 percent to 5.1 percent. Since Week 11, Darnold is 2-for-20 on tight window throws. Darnold’s season shifted after the first loss to the Rams last year and it has shifted again after playing the same team this season.
Over the past two games against the Seahawks, the Rams offense has struggled on third down. They were 2-for-11 on third down back in Week 11 and then 3-for-14 in the second game last year. The Rams...
